Dragan Stepanović

@d_stepanovic
401 Followers
99 Following
687 Posts
Trying hard not to think about small batches, bottlenecks, and systems. In the meantime: XP, Theory of Constraints, Lean, Systems Thinking
websitehttps://draganstepanovic.com

An additional problem is the delay between the point in time you start piling up the risks in the codebase and the team's process, and the time it takes for them to visibly materialize.

Some are easier to observe like bugs and outages, but some are not as tangible and harder to detect, like decreased ability to reason about the system and anticipate problems before they occur, shifting the ratio of proactive problem detection to reactive mitigation, etc.

The risk with removing parts of your delivery process that you think you don't need anymore because "AI can do it" - such as teasing out the mental model of how the system works from the heads of people who own the system - is that you get to discover, often way too late, what some of the purposes of that practice were and the benefits you didn't recognize you were getting.

Assumptions you don't know you're making. Unknown unknowns.

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Preparing a talk "Agentic coding - Systems Perspective", and along the way realized that cognitive/comprehension debt didn't arrive with the advent of agentic coding. Most teams doing work in isolation (individually), already heavily experienced it.

The difference is that on this spectrum of fragmentation of the mental model of workings of the system we went from erosion to a complete dissolution of a shared mental model.

I also have new understanding of why teams doing pair/mob worked so well

Let's not forget that LLMs got fed with an ever decreasing quality of work our industry has been producing over the last 15 years as a result of cheap money with ever decreasing central bank interest rates.

And both of these reinforcing loops are accelerating with LLMs dogfooding.

Imagine your team doing agentic coding in the codebase serving mills of customers without understanding how it works, and you get paged at 2 am, and since no one knows how the system works you need to ask LLM to tell you, and it gives you, wait for it... a PLAUSIBLE answer what might be wrong.
From what I can tell Claude Code source leak by shipping a source map was definitely a skill issue.

"I always operated/debugged systems I didn't understand" is not a badge of honor to justify everyone else should somehow feel comfortable maintaining/running systems they don't understand anymore because "agents write all of our code and humans understanding how the system they own works is a bottleneck to remove".

It's a sign of having to deal with the fallout of dysfunctional system that most engineers shouldn't have had to deal with in the first place, instead of attempting to normalize it.

Availability that comes as a result of particular way of developing software needs to be put in a broader context, and your business is, I'd say, very likely far from the same position as those telling you to do the same thing they have the luxury of doing.

In short: the tipping point of the effects of poor service availability for most businesses out there is likely far earlier than for Anthropic, and trying to address it just-in-time is likely too little, too late.

n/n

But if you use the same approach to building software, and you don't have the same privilege of demand for your product as Anthropic does, then availability becomes utterly important as a perception of value for what your customers are paying for your product.

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