Mostly on Bluesky these days: https://bsky.app/profile/conrad.knauer.ca
Formerly @conradknauer on Twitter, but it's gotten way too Musky over there.
This deserves more attention - the press is just now starting to notice this:
"Elon Musk's X has updated its terms of service to steer any disputes by users of the social media platform formerly known as Twitter to a federal court in Texas whose judges frequently deliver victories to conservative litigants in political cases.
...X is not even located in the district."
https://www.reuters.com/legal/musks-x-seeks-steer-lawsuits-conservative-court-texas-2024-10-17/
Early Voting Not So Deep Dive
Yesterday wrote this long Early Voting Deep Dive thread https://mastodon.online/@mastodonmigration/113324466206605610 for people who really like to wonk out, but that's not everyone, so what are the key points?
1. We're running two to three points ahead of where we were in 2020. even though the early vote is very old, it's very white, it's very rural, and also Republicans are trying much harder in the early vote this time than they did in 2020. This is excellent and unexpected.
1/n
Early Voting Deep Dive So, what can we glean about the election from the early voting data so far? Bottom line, things are going very well. Much better than expected. It is still early, but there are a lot of reasons for us to be optimistic and them to be nervous. This long thread summarizes some of the commentary by Simon Rosenberg in todays Hopium Chronicles talk: https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/working-hard-and-closing-strong-my Recommend you listen to it all, but what follows are some of the saliant bits. 1/n @[email protected]
2. In the battleground we only really have lots of data so far from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and we're running ahead of 2020 in those three battleground states. Michigan is going particularly well, mostly due to the black vote in Detroit, and especially older black women.
2/n
3. Late voters are overwhelmingly going to be younger voters, which should mean that the early vote should look more Republican than it did four years ago and it doesn't.
4. Republicans recognize that discouraging early voting in 2020 was a big mistake and so they've been working hard to change that. But the fact is, there's still almost a three to one advantage in Pennsylvania for Democrats among these early voters.
3/n
5. The Republicans spin everything and there is no attempt to spin the early vote as being positive for them. There's nothing because their performance so far with early voting is horrible.
6. There is a clear demonstrable surge of older democrats voting at much higher levels than they voted four years ago.
7. In all likelihood the independent vote will be more democratic this time than it was four years ago.
4/n
Latest update on the DDOS attack from @brewsterkahle (Oct 11 @ 10:22am PT):
"The data is safe.
Services are offline as we examine and strengthen them. Sorry, but needed. @internetarchive staff is working hard.
Estimated Timeline: days, not weeks.
Thank you for the offers of pizza (we are set)."
Tim Chambers
Mastodon Migration
internetarchive
DeanObeidallah
