Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late May.
The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is just dominant, but appears stalled at around 30%.
Growth of the XFG.* "Stratus" variant accelerated to 22%, and it is on a trajectory to take over soon.
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late May.
The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has continued to grow, reaching 29%.
Growth of the XFG.* variant accelerated to 19%.
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-May.
The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has grown strongly to take over dominance at 27%.
The LP.8.1.* variant has fallen to around 27%.
The XFG.* variant is another challenger, with growth accelerating in May to 12%.
Following the declaration by the WHO of NB.1.8.1 as a Variant Under Monitoring and as Nextstrain Clade 25B, I have separated that variant and its descendants into a new “L2” group, shown in Sky Blue.
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early May.
The dominant LP.8.1.* variant has fallen to around 34%.
XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) is challenging, rising steadily to 18%
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late April.
Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant is holding at around 39%.
XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) looks like the next challenger, rising steadily to 13%
With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.
The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, NB.1.8.1, XFG and XFJ.
I show them here using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1. Note the recent sample volumes are quite low, so the right side of this chart might not be a representative picture.
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late March.
Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant resumed to around 38%, with the XEC.* variant declining to 29%.
Mike Honey