Bear Braumoeller

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Husband; dad; author, “Only the Dead” (http://is.gd/lD5FjX). Computational social scientist focused on theoretical models of order and conflict. Founder and Director, MESO Lab (Modeling Emergent Social Order). Professor of Political Science, OSU.
Research labhttps://themesolab.com
Personal websitehttps://braumoeller.com
Google Scholarhttps://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZW-QEygAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra
PronounsHe, him
“Once students have become “beta theorists” (in that all their theories take the form y=Xß), they don’t just fail to see the need for more theory—they develop instincts that are antithetical to theorizing, like adding more variables when fewer are needed, or ‘explaining’ by accounting for as much detail as possible rather than by abstracting away from reality.” https://tinyurl.com/HDTBFB
Braumoeller_H-Diplo_Teaching_Formal_Theory.pdf

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“The foundational models in statistics—regression, logit, and the like—are designed to be models of distributions, not models of processes or mechanisms. They might be reasonable representations of processes or mechanisms; logit and probit, for example, work well as random utility models. 15 But if they are, it is generally by accident, and the representation is typically approximate.” https://tinyurl.com/HDTBFB
Braumoeller_H-Diplo_Teaching_Formal_Theory.pdf

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Thank you, Charles from the New York Times recipe comments section. I feel seen.
It gets worse.

Eyepopping Bret Stephens column, summarizing a new study, argues (as the headline flatly states) that “Mask Mandates Did Nothing.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/21/opinion/do-mask-mandates-work.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Click over to the study itself and read that existing observational studies are flawed in ways that make it difficult to know whether masks did anything to slow spread of disease. (One example: Many people ignored mandates.)

Those are… really, really not the same thing.

Opinion | The Mask Mandates Did Nothing. Will Any Lessons Be Learned?

“Do something” is not science, and it shouldn’t have been public policy.

The New York Times
This photograph deserves to be circulated widely. It’s the first time I’ve ever seen a photo in which one of the survivors of a mass shooting is wearing a shirt commemorating a different mass shooting.

For the first time in my career, I’ve been hearing graduate students talking about not applying for certain jobs because of the aggressive anti-intellectual rhetoric and behavior of governors and state legislatures.

In today’s academic job market, that says a lot.

“At the Manuscript Writing Café, people who aren’t facing a deadline cannot enter! I ask for your understanding and coöperation in order to maintain the tension in the café.”

This sounds like something Steve Martin dreamed up.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/01/02/coffee-with-a-side-of-deadline-hectoring

Coffee, with a Side of Deadline Hectoring

Ann Tashi Slater on Tokyo’s Manuscript Writing Café, which admits only workers facing a deadline, who can order occasional polite check-ins or an employee looming silently over them.

The New Yorker

This is a fascinating little exchange. Tate taunting Thunberg is just red meat for his followers—hardly anything new in the attention economy. Her QT in response is surprisingly devastating.

His replies, about nine hours apart, prove that social media bullies can be really, really bad at defending themselves. Tate, a man who’s been banned elsewhere for misogyny and who makes a living kicking other people until they’re unconscious, just can’t control his rage. He can’t even hide it.