So, how's it going, world? Making big progress on cutting carbon emissions, keeping below 1.5°C of global warming, and averting societal collapse? Or not?

Here's Steve Genco (@sjgenco) with a simple, straightforward presentation of the facts — the hard reality of where we stand.
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Under the auspices of the IPCC, climate scientists have found that tracking carbon budgets is a good way to capture the relationships between fossil fuel use, CO2 emissions, and global temperatures. Scientists can predict how hot it is going to get given how much CO2 is in the atmosphere, which in turn depends on how much additional oil, gas, and coal we burn before we stop.

The remaining carbon budgets for avoiding specific average temperature increases (1.5°C and 2.0°C) have shrunk considerably, thanks to our continued failure to curb emissions. Scientists can now calculate how many years it will take to reduce CO2 emissions to zero, assuming we start in 2024 and decrease emissions linearly every year until we reach zero, all the while emitting no more CO2 than the budget allows.

What this chart [below] shows is that a 66% chance to keep global warming below 1.5°C will require reducing CO2 emissions to zero by 2030. From our starting point of 37 gigatons in 2022, that translates into a reduction of nearly 15% per year.

There is currently no realistic scenario in which that level of reduction is feasible, given both past history and in-place national commitments.

If we are willing to accept a 50% chance to keep warming below 1.5°C, our zero-emissions deadline extends to 2035. For a 66% chance to keep warming below a more damaging 2.0°C, our deadline is 2069. And for an even (50%) chance to keep warming below 2.0°C, the zero-emissions deadline is 2079.

It’s worth noting that a 50% chance to keep warming below a certain threshold is also a 50% chance to end up with warming *exceeding* that threshold. So ideally, we should seek to pursue our zero-emissions goal with a probability greater than 50%.

But if we want an 83% chance of keeping warming below 1.5°C, we can only burn 100 additional gigatons of CO2, a threshold will will surpass in three or four years. We could do it, but all indications so far say we won’t.

It’s time to start thinking seriously about Plan B.
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FULL ARTICLE -- https://archive.ph/Kxdh7

ALTERNATE LINK -- https://sjgenco.medium.com/an-update-on-carbon-budgets-e6cd62620017

#Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #CO2 #Emissions

British Mathematician also called the first computer programmer Ada Lovelace died #OTD in 1852. She is known for her work on Charles Babbage's proposed mechanical general-purpose computer, the Analytical Engine. She was the first to recognise that the machine had applications beyond pure calculation.

Babbage's friend Charles Wheatstone commissioned Ada Lovelace to translate Menabrea's paper into English. She then augmented the paper with notes, which were added to the translation.

#mathematics

NASA just transmitted a software update 12 billion miles to Voyager 2, a feat that’s a marvel of spaceflight engineering and a testament to human achievement. It arrived with the following release notes:

“Bug fixes.”

Lockdowns, Masks, And Social Distancing "Unequivocally" Help Stop The Spread Of #COVID

The Royal Society has issued a report examining the effects of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – not vaccines or medications – in reducing the spread of COVID-19, and their results are conclusive: wearing face masks, social distancing, and lockdowns “unequivocally” lowered the spread of the disease.

https://www.iflscience.com/lockdowns-masks-and-social-distancing-unequivocally-help-stop-the-spread-of-covid-70408

City of Hope in Duarte, California, has maintained masking requirements, and this has prevented hospital-acquired #COVID19 there entirely, according to Vijay Trisal, MD, chief medical officer at City of Hope.

“Our policies enabled us to achieve zero nosocomial infections, zero outbreaks.”

https://www.cancertherapyadvisor.com/home/cancer-topics/general-oncology/mask-mandates-have-kept-one-cancer-center-free-from-covid-19-others-have-lifted-masking-requirements-despite-patient-concerns/