The number that should worry you isn't the 21% hardcore MAGA. It's the 9% Pew calls Tuned Out — voters across race and class who ignore politics, occasionally turn out knowing nothing, and forget they did. Disengagement, not extremism, is the wild card. #Politics #Pew
https://twp.ai/4hrd6i

The rural-urban divide feels eternal. It isn't. Mettler and Brown show both parties drew rural and urban votes until the 1990s. A canyon that opened in living memory can be closed — but only if we stop writing rural voters off as a lost cause. #Politics #RuralUrban
https://twp.ai/4hrd6e

For everyone worried AI is about to run the world: try asking it to fix a 1993 Ford Ranger. It confidently marches you down a hallucinatory rabbit hole and never solves the problem. That, I think, is exactly how the left keeps misreading voters — fixating on one convenient story and ignoring the messy permutations. New essay on what an old truck and Pew's 2026 typology reveal. #Politics #AI
https://twp.ai/4hrd6f

Pew's 2026 political typology sorts the public into nine groups, not red vs. blue. Read it and you find more blue than red, a hardcore authoritarian corner around 21%, and a lot of cross-pressured people in between. The map is more hopeful than the discourse. #Pew #Politics
https://twp.ai/4hrd6d

When people vote against their interests, we reach for the convenient explanation — stupidity, racism — and stop looking. It's the same trap an AI falls into: lock onto one wrong answer and perseverate. The evidence points somewhere more useful. #Politics
https://twp.ai/4hrd6k

New on Progressive Conjecture: a broken-down 1993 Ford Ranger, an overconfident AI, and Pew's nine-group typology walk into an essay about why progressives keep misreading the electorate — and how to read it better. #Politics #Pew
https://twp.ai/4hrd6m

No Kings Day is coming up. Thousands will march. Monday, pundits will count heads. Then what?
Trump is at 36% approval. The economy lost 92,000 jobs in February. Gas is $4 a gallon thanks to his Iran war. He's sinking — but we need more than protest to end the regime. No Kings treats the symptom. The disease is 40 years of Americans being stripped of the belief that government can work for them. New piece:
https://newsletter.aprogressiveway.com/everyone-a-sovereign-fear-and-self-loathing-on-no-kings-day/

The endgame: some countries will facilitate some meetings somewhere in Switzerland—giving Trump his peace-with-honor participation trophy while leaving Iran's regime functionally intact, as hard-line as ever. Trump's slow-motion defeat, wrapped in a fig leaf. https://twp.ai/4ixLM5 #Iran #ProgressiveConjecture

Iran will deliberately avoid terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. That is the one act that could galvanize Americans to tolerate $8 gas and ground troops in Iran. Tehran has studied this dynamic carefully. The restraint is strategic, not moral. https://twp.ai/4ixLM6 #Iran #ForeignPolicy #Trump

Iran can't defeat a nuclear-armed Israel or a determined United States. Its leaders know this. Their only total-war solution is to collapse the world economy as fast as possible before the West develops the will to actually invade. Patient. Rational. Structural. https://twp.ai/4ixLLz #Iran #MiddleEast #IranWar