We have seen many approaches of 'just ban the dirty' but there are always edge cases, and those approaches have not been able to maintain support as the actual bans get near unless you get so lucky as to have the clean option eclipse the dirty unsubsidized (see LED).

Do we think anyone is actually interested in a 'do something' approach enough to implement something like this? Or will we just get a hodge podge of feel good actions that amount to 'do nothing an hope it solves itself'?
Anyone have any real alternatives here?

In addition there needs to be problems to ensure that vendors / installers stock the 'clean' options, and are capable of installing them on an emergency basis.
In the end the price level needs to make the 'clean' option cheaper up front, and leave the frictions on the 'dirty'.

Permanence - in the long run as this needs to be permanently fiscally sustainable, it needs to shift so that the rare 'dirty' device pays fees, rather than large subsidies on the 'clean' devices.

I would probably have installed a heat pump last year ( I got quotes), but I didn't have time to deal with an energy audit, and my existing system wasn't end of life yet to motivate me.
Now the subsidies are too restrictive, and the value proposition is poor...

No frictions means no energy audits or upfront assessments to qualify. Any imposed frictions disrupts the potentially urgent or spontaneous replacement.

We could start with it being mostly subsidy, but this regime needs to be permanent, and non-discriminatory.
That means that there cannot be any frictions in it being applied, it needs to be applied at the counter, and it cannot depend on income, what's being replaced, etc.

This means that we will need to provide a tax / subsidy regime on things like vehicles, HVAC, appliances, yard tools, that provide a differential cost on the purchase / installation of those roughly equivalent to what the carbon value over a normal lifetime would be.

We have to assume electricity will continue to decarbonize, and we need sperate policies to drive that (anouther threat for anouther day) AND electricity volumetric cost MUST be kept (efficiency adjusted) competitive with fuels.

Ok, so where do we go from here?
About the only approach I can think of that may actually have the scale to make this work is a more heavy handed tax and subsidize regime on residential / small commercial devices that have significant *direct* ghg implications.