Mastodawn

@mastodonmigration Unfortunately, presidential elections are always determined by independents in the middle, who are not inclined to vote for what they view as candidates at the far end. For example, polls showed that the entire complex of issues around sexuality and sports was an enormous turn-off for the middle, and pushed them enough toward Trump to make the difference. That's just the unfortunate reality. Middle of the road, safe candidates usually win, except in extraordinary circumstances (e.g., Biden's obvious denial of a steep mental decline). Remember, Trump won't be running again (no matter what he says).

@lauren

We will see. The conventional wisdom is always true until it is not.

@mastodonmigration This one has been 100%. The presidential elections history is littered with examples. You probably know them as well as I do.

Mastodon Migration

@lauren

The question however becomes what is 'moderate' when the Overton window has shifted so far. Is it moderate to support bills favoring corporate Ponzi schemes over regular investors retirement savings? Is it moderate to support war in Gaza and Lebanon? When the establishment Democrats have become captive of big money, what defines moderate? If you listen to Brad Lander he actually sounds like the real moderate. What is happening is a definition of what constitutes 'the middle.'

@mastodonmigration I think the key aspect is that overwhelmingly the factor driving Trump's polling decline is the economy. Everything else, even health care (which of course relates) is much further down. Whoever is seen as most likely to keep the price of gasoline down is most likely to win.

Tim Bray 🇨🇦4d ago

@lauren @mastodonmigration Heh, so the Dems should consider a one-line platform: “We promise not to start any wars”.

@timbray @mastodonmigration They have to go after the foundational pocketbook stuff. Not massive proposals unlikely to be enacted and survive court challenges. The reason the price of gas is such a flash point is that most people have to deal with it on a daily basis, and those prices are up there on the signs that everyone sees.

Peter Ludemann 4d ago

@timbray So, you're saying that the Dems should promise the same thing that Trump promised (“I’m not going to start a war; I’m going to stop wars”) and then reneged on? (In a poll, 48% of adults believe Republican politicians are "sometimes or always dishonest," while 44% say the same about Democrats.)
@lauren @mastodonmigration

2xfo 4d ago

@PeterLudemann @timbray @lauren @mastodonmigration
Even just claiming they would stop wars would be an improvement over, um, well - beating up and deporting people who opposed genocide, for example

@lauren

Again, we will find out. Feel like this administration has administered a profound shock to the system. It remains to be seen how or if this translates into a real progressive electoral revolution. The early indications are that something profound is going on. Goldman losing by 2:1 is pretty shocking. But, there is indeed a long way to go, and the money is certainly not going to roll over.

Coach Sankhavaram ®4d ago

@lauren @mastodonmigration

“Whoever is seen as most likely to keep the price of gasoline down is most likely to win.”

💯

@paninid @mastodonmigration That seems to have been the historical trend for many decades.

@lauren @mastodonmigration But does anyone actually want to be part of a country that insists on buying giant SUVs for its daily transportation needs and then prioritizes cheap gas for them over human rights or maintaining a livable planet?

@PedestrianError @mastodonmigration STEP ONE: Prevent a fascist dictatorship from cancelling elections and taking over the country. STEP TWO: Everything else.

@lauren @PedestrianError

Absolutely. The issue is how best to accomplish STEP ONE.

@lauren @mastodonmigration The centrists have controlled the Democratic party and worked tirelessly to prevent progressives from gaining a foothold at the expense of combatting the far right since Bill Clinton's rise in 1992. That party failed to prevent fascist dictatorship and can't be trusted to pull us back from it now with the same failed tactics. That's exactly why more chasing mythical soccer moms who can't decide if they're fascist or not can't be the strategy.

@PedestrianError @lauren

Always think about that Harris ad with the women going to the poll and voting against their husbands wishes. Thought it was a savy move at the time, but then read here about how disgusted it made Black people. So yes, these thing are complicated.

@mastodonmigration @lauren We're never going to have a real progressive politics until we obliterate the fucking patriarchy. Not just the vile, openly misogynistic manosphere part of it but all the norms and traditions of heteronormative gender performance that make it a normative assumption and fodder for supposedly cute jokes that straight married women are second class citizens in their own homes.

@lauren @PedestrianError @mastodonmigration ok, *unless* aligning to a centrism that I’d call corporate-dem policy is in the recommendation for STEP ONE, which is unfortunately implicit in our party centrists declaring Centrism is The Only Way To Win.

It’s an arguable case that Corps keep railroading progs. McGovern was the last time a prog hit the ballot. Edwards, Dean, Sanders, Warren each hit corp headwind. I mean, remember when Dean had his rep annihilated for yelling oddly in a rally? And I was just a pup then, but am told that corp influence in ‘72 was significant in McGovern’s loss. If candidates never get to November, the ‘must be centrist’ theory remains untested.

@cascheranno @PedestrianError @mastodonmigration I remember McGovern well. The Eagleton debacle completing derailed him, but even without that he probably was doomed. Or remember what happened to Dukakis after he went for his tank ride?

@lauren @PedestrianError @mastodonmigration

Minor gaffes dooming progs but not donor-supported candidates is kind of my point.

@cascheranno @lauren @PedestrianError @mastodonmigration
I remember Edwards. He sank his own campaign with some really nasty fallout from a extramarital affair.

@Barbramon1 @cascheranno @lauren @mastodonmigration And politically speaking I'm not sure what you'd call Edwards other than centrist. His platform in 2004 was slightly to the right of Kerry in many ways and he was a pretty classic Southern Democrat (of the turn of the 21st century era, not the openly segregationist era, but still.) His wife who he infamously cheated on while she was dying of cancer was a lot more progressive than he was, but she wasn't the one running for president.

@PedestrianError @cascheranno @lauren @mastodonmigration
Edwards was nominated for VP to balance the ticket. A New England blue blood, Kerry, who was related to the Forbes family, needed a
middle of the road southerner as a sop to Southern voters, or so the story goes.
His presidential ambitions probably never stood a much of a chance. His affair ended his political career.

@Barbramon1 @PedestrianError @lauren @mastodonmigration uh… Two Americas stump speeches during his 2004 primary (that stayed in use as it became a vp run), and 2008 *presidential* run were kind of omitted.

And tell me again how adultery mattered more for him than the affairs of Clinton, Kennedy, cheetolini, Bush pere, Johnson, Ford, Kerry, McCain, … weird how fussing about poverty more than donor wishlists made his scandal worse than all those.

@[email protected] @PedestrianError @lauren @mastodonmigration
And tell me again why some of us see shadowy, nefarious plots around every corner. Have a great day. 🌞

@Barbramon1 @PedestrianError @lauren @mastodonmigration it’s not shadowy or nefarious. Money dominates politics. Fuck with the wealthy; get pilloried for stupid shit.

@Barbramon1 @PedestrianError @lauren @mastodonmigration that’s ignoring 2 Americas. Revisionism is commonly done when the powerful want to avoid a topic.

@Barbramon1 @lauren @PedestrianError @mastodonmigration

D’you hear yourself saying an affair sunk him? But not all the other presidents and candidates who didn’t barnstorm with a ‘two America’s’ stump speech that was hot as hell, politically? From 2004, so you needn’t take me at my word:

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Edwards-struck-a-chord-with-2-Americas-speech-2823834.php

Client Challenge

@cascheranno @lauren @PedestrianError @mastodonmigration
Bye bye.

@cascheranno @lauren @mastodonmigration The wildest thing is that Dean actually was/is a centrist. So much so that Vermont has a third party (Progressive) that's viable in local elections to this day that arose to combat his centrist policies as governor. He really only deviated from mainstream Dems on the Iraq war & Bush's erosion of civil liberties and corporate Dems were scared because he signed Vermont's civil union bill only after the state supreme court forced his hand.