#Moscow today

What you're looking at is part of a #drone attack on an #oilRefinery

And yes, you saw correctly, the oil storage tank that blew up at the end was not hit by #Ukraine, it was hit by #Russia's own #SAM #missile

#UkraineWar

@benroyce There is another video of two guys shooting MANDPADs at the drones with the same characteristic exhaust signature. It is entirely possible one of them fired before lock and the missile just travelled ballistically and then exploded when it hit the tank.

@ChuckMcManis

are they heat seeking? i don't know but that might also "help"

@benroyce The Russian 9K333 Verba (as seen in the video) uses infra-red for terminal guidance. So yes, a metal tank would be tastier than surrounding structures. 😉 That said, it isn’t supposed to fire until it has lock (you have specifically unsafe it to get it to fire without lock) normally you’d put it up on your shoulder pull the trigger and aim at the aircraft and as soon as it had lock it would launch.
@benroyce And it occurs to me writing that, that they 9K333 might not actually be *able* to lock on this type of drone at range because their ICE engines are a lot cooler than jet engines. So you’d have to fire it without lock and hope for it to “see” it while flying. (not good odds there)

@ChuckMcManis @benroyce given how most subsonic drones don't have a Turbofan or Ramjet but usually Turboprop if not simple propellers and have their alredy lower amount of hot exhaust diffused by the turbulent airflow of the propellers, that is more than realistic.

The only reason those drones often still get locked-on is the lack of (automatic) counterpeasures [like flares] being fired and the low angular speed.
- But if they fly low then they are hard to lock on...

@ChuckMcManis @benroyce ...cuz even Strela and Igla MANPADs are designed with trans-/ supersonic jets & helicopters (that look like a giant target in thermal vision) in mind, not with something that has a heat signature potentially as low as a goose (when it's like battery powered or using RC motors).
- Pretty shure Moscow will be forced to get the old ZPU AA Lafettes out and set aside a shitton of crews for those, reducing the potential number of people Putin could sent into the Meatgrinder…
@kkarhan @ChuckMcManis @benroyce A fine assessment. If true though we'd expect to see at least an initial trajectory for drone interception. What I saw wasn't an arc of missed target replaced by new target. It was a direct line of fire into the storage tank.

@Beggarmidas @ChuckMcManis @benroyce Given the lack of training and discipline is the Russian Armed Forces, someone being told to shoot might've just overridden the locking for manual, unguided firing, just to not be scrutinized and court-martialed for not firing...
- And in this case, the "miss" turned into " #FriendlyFire "…

But then again #Russia saw it's fair share of #sabotage in retaliation for their #CrimeOfAggression
- So in the end, the only one knowing the truth is the one who shot!

@kkarhan @Beggarmidas @benroyce

Always hard to guess. There is clearly a lot of pressure coming from command here. I’m kind of surprised they don’t have helicopters in the air as they are much more effective against this threat than MANPADs are.

@ChuckMcManis @kkarhan @benroyce Russia has lost a lot of capacity to refine aircraft fuel though. It's a lot more exacting than just the crap you can put through any old passenger car. Helicopters are *very* thirsty birds.
@kkarhan @ChuckMcManis @benroyce Oh, i've never made the mistake of underestimating russian capacity for combat incompetence. I knew years before all the western 'experts' did that Putins army was largely a paper tiger.
That's still one hell of a 'whoops' even by their low standards, though. lol
I was also under the impression that the manpads were getting pretty scarce among Ru MoD rank & file. They were in the hands of seasoned soldiers only. Unlikely to make such a rookie mistake.

@Beggarmidas @kkarhan @benroyce

That is what I have heard as well (strictly rationed). That said, its a special kind of panic that hits when the capital is being obliterated and its hurting the narrative.

@ChuckMcManis @kkarhan @benroyce Yeah, wonder how much longer its going to be until we start seeing that panic trickle up the command chain far enough to cause visible fracture among the siloviki. I suspect Tsar Vladmir the first might have all three chegets under his direct possession keeping them all at bay.
@ChuckMcManis @kkarhan @benroyce or he has at least two. We all know that Gerasimov would turn the key if given the order. But if you do a before and after analysis of the cheget that Shoygu surrendered vs the one that Belousov took possession you'll note how distinctly different they look. Andrei wouldn't know the difference between a genuine cheget and an ice cream machine. He's a fucking economist. There was nothing in the modernization program I found that talked about any recent upgrades.

@ChuckMcManis
This is true: “its a special kind of panic that hits when the capital is being obliterated and its hurting the narrative.” 🤗

@Beggarmidas @kkarhan @benroyce