The evil economics this spring:
— Trump starts a war with Iran
— The oil price doubles
— Trump uses the oil price as an excuse for lifting Russian oil sanctions
— This helps Putin's economy
— Putin fires more Iskander ballistic missiles at civilian targets in Ukraine (~$3 million per missile)
— Ukraine spends more American patriot interceptor missiles (~$6 million per missile, typically two missiles per interception)
— Europe buys more Patriot missiles for Ukraine
— The US makes more money.
1/2
Obviously this is not in itself evidence that Trump and Putin are directly working together. But it shows that the current military economy has some really destructive incentives.
We need to change that.
2/2
@randahl Except for the fact that Trump's skyrocketing oil prices allowed Ukraine to start bombing Russian oil infrastructure without the international community blaming them for any price increase. Now Russia is selling less and less oil every day and are on the verge of complete bankruptcy.
If Trump was trying to help Putin, he failed miserably at it, just like almost everything else he does.
@mikemccaffrey @randahl
“Russia, the world’s third biggest oil producer and a major oil and fuel exporter, is to import fuel by sea this month as it seeks to manage a shortage after extensive Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries.”
Such a shortage as to require Russia to *import* oil.
#SlavaUkrainii #ukraine #theguardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/18/moscow-oil-refinery-on-fire-ukraine-drone-stikes
Randahl Fink
Mike McCaffrey 
spmatich vk3spm 
