The last ship carrying jet fuel arrived in the port of Rotterdam this past week.
"Europe's airports have begun imposing restrictions on refueling due to a shortage of jet fuel, and airlines have preemptively canceled flights.
In Bangladesh, the fuel shortages and panic have resulted in a spike in robberies, as people raid gas stations and fuel trucks in order to stockpile supplies."
https://time.com/article/2026/04/05/strait-of-hormuz-fuel-rationing-oil/
"EU Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told reporters that around 8.5% of the bloc's LNG, 7% of its oil and 40% of its jet fuel and diesel travels through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has mostly blocked access to during the war."
40% of jet fuel.
Europe needs to build out its high speed rail network to avoid repeated travel shocks.
Frank Elderson, board of ECB:
"Europe cannot eliminate geopolitical risk, but it can significantly reduce its exposure to it. The most effective way to do that is by cutting reliance on imported fossil fuels and accelerating an orderly shift to homegrown clean energy.:
The investment may be € 660 bn a year.
Sounds like a large number (it is) until you remember that Europe spends € 400 bn a year on fossil fuel imports.
https://www.ft.com/content/6fa21bdb-1387-4fb8-afc9-3d0b53affa58
Meanwhile, Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar speaks of a gas pipeline here and an oil pipeline there.
Still thinking inside the fossil fuel box.
France announces ban on gas boilers in new buildings starting in 2027
Also, "starting in June, the government will subsidize 50,000 more electric vehicles through reduced-rate leases for high-mileage drivers hit by fuel price spikes, such as health aides, nurses and tradespeople who rely on cars for work. Businesses will get aid for electric vans and trucks, up to €100,000 per vehicle – including, for instance, cargo bikes sought by last-mile delivery firms."
This is one way to cut carbon emissions.
Accelerating the energy transitions is a less painful way.
"The European Union warned member countries on Wednesday that if the Iran conflict continues, energy markets will face a prolonged supply shock that would force cuts to fuel consumption, EU diplomats told Reuters."
"Per capita fossil energy peaked after the twin oil shocks of the 1970s and never recovered.
The parallels with the 1970s oil shocks are striking. But so too is the difference. For the first time, there are scalable, cost-competitive alternatives.
The shock has jolted the electric age forward. But the response is a choice: lean into local, electric security, or reach back to the old fossil playbook."
https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-new-twin-fossil-shock/
"Japan said on Wednesday it would establish a financial framework worth about $10 billion to help Asian countries procure energy resources and bolster their stockpiles as Middle East tensions drive prices higher and disrupt supply chains.
The support [is] aimed at preventing knock-on effects on Japan's own supply chains."
"The current increase in coal utilisation reflects its role as a “shock absorber” in India’s energy mix.
The central risk facing India today is not an immediate energy crisis, but long-term lock-in. Every new coal plant, gas pipeline, or LNG terminal represents a commitment to decades of fossil fuel use."
IEEFA:
There is a stampede to build new fossil gas plants.
It is misguided.
"The price of new combined-cycle gas plants is roughly triple the cost of projects built in the early 2020s and orders placed now likely will not be fulfilled until 2030, or later."
Wind and solar, paired with dispatchable battery storage, are cheaper to build, and they have no fuel costs.
Cost to consumers will be stable, and lower.
https://ieefa.org/resources/misguided-stampede-build-gas-power-plants
Demand destruction
"The IEA sees global oil demand falling by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, compared with a projected year-on-year rise of 640,000 bpd in its previous monthly report.
“Demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist,” the IEA report said"
"Opening up of parts of the public estate for renewable energy projects, including brownfield, industrial and railway sites, would potentially allow up to 10 gigawatts of new capacity, according to the government's plans.
It will overhaul planning and land-use rules to speed up grid connections and infrastructure upgrades, and aim to make it easier for renters and apartment dwellers to install EV chargers, solar panels and heat pumps."
"The EU will cut electricity taxes and provide consumers with fresh incentives to ditch fuel-burning cars and boilers, the European Commission has announced, as the energy crisis from the Iran war speeds a shift to a clean economy.
The plan, which foresees tweaking rules so that electricity is taxed less than oil and gas, aims to bring down bills while encouraging the move away from polluting devices that prolong reliance on foreign fuels."
Most Indian households cook with LPG, accounting for 85-90% of imported LPG that must go through the Strait of Hormuz.
Restaurants and hotels make up the rest of the LPG demand.
There has been a run on induction cookstoves.
https://www.ft.com/content/4b9ab34a-191e-459d-90a8-ce148888ffed?syn-25a6b1a6=1
"The conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel is creating the worst energy crisis ever faced by the world, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
"The crisis is already huge, if you combine the effects of the petrol crisis and the gas crisis with Russia," he added."
"Demand for rooftop solar systems across Europe has surged since the start of the Iran war, as households rush to shield themselves from soaring power prices triggered by the worst global energy disruption in history."
"Public servants working for the Tokyo metropolitan government are being encouraged to swap their suits for shorts this summer to combat sweltering heat and rising energy costs caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.
Inspired by the country’s Cool Biz energy-saving initiative, Tokyo officials hope the measure will cut dependence on air conditioning."
"The European Commission has launched a strategy to protect people in the EU from “fossil-fuel price shocks” and accelerate the expansion of “homegrown clean energy”.
The proposals are meant to ensure the EU has enough fuel in the short term, to protect consumers from price rises and – in the longer term – to curb reliance on oil and gas.
Central to the commission’s strategy is a proposal to overhaul the EU’s taxation system so that it favours electricity over gas."
What all the stuff reported in this thread adds up to:
Demand destruction.
As Rebecca Solnit puts it:
"This is how the attack by one petro-state (ours) on another (Iran's) may be turning out to be very bad for petroleum, because the only thing history loves more than a surprise party is irony."
https://www.meditationsinanemergency.com/truth-consequences-climate-and-demand-destruction/
"This is how the attack on one petro-state (ours) on another (Iran's) may be turning out to be very bad for petroleum, because the only thing history loves more than a surprise party is irony." The Crisis The biggest news is always the climate news, and sometimes it's so big
Read the Solnit piece first, then the recap by Doctorow, with subtitles:
"As Solnit writes, Trump's stupid war follows on the heels of another unforgivable and cruel blunder: Putin's quagmire in Ukraine, which catapulted Europe into the Gretacene, with a wholesale, continent-wide shift away from fossil fuels to renewables and the devices they power. Now, the rest of the world is following suit."
These nuggets!
"We dig up a lot of fossil fuels. The world consumes seventeen times more fossil fuels in a year than we will require to electrify the planet forever."
"In 2024, America saw its first all-solar powered solar panel recycling factory, which reclaimed 99% of the materials in a panel that was 20% efficient, and then used those materials to make two panels that were each 40% efficient."
Chokepoints
"The age of assuming someone else’s energy will always be available, at a price we can afford, through a route we don’t control, is over.
Solar and wind require no imports from unstable regions, no transit through chokepoints. Every energy minister on earth grasps this now in a way they did not nine weeks ago."
Demand destruction, petrochemical fertiliser:
"Side-by-side plots in Kutztown, PA compared regenerative practices, including cover cropping, crop rotation, and composting, with conventional agriculture. The result was yields up to 30% higher for sustainable methods during extreme weather, profits that were 3-6 times higher overall, the use of 45% less energy—and 40% lower carbon emissions.
Among young farmers, regenerative practices are already taking hold."
https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/free-agriculture-from-oil-fertilizer
"The Iran war appears to have supercharged the clean energy transition, providing a catalyst for wind power giants as countries reassess the role of renewables in shoring up energy security.
Danish wind turbine maker Vestas reported an unexpectedly large first-quarter profit rise on Wednesday, citing improved execution of its onshore and offshore businesses despite growing political uncertainty."
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/iran-war-renewables-wind-oil-gas-equinor-orsted.html
"Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC is raking in record profits during the AI boom—but it is also racing to help Taiwan develop wind power and other energy alternatives to fossil fuels amid a global energy crisis.
The chipmaker has signed a 30-year corporate power purchase agreement for 100 percent of the power produced by the Hai Long offshore wind project."
"The UK has avoided the need for gas imports worth £1.7bn since the start of the Iran war, as a result of record electricity generation from wind and solar, reveals Carbon Brief analysis.
The surge in wind and solar output is cutting the need for gas-fired generation, which has been nearly a third lower than last year and fell to record lows in both March and April 2026."
A good explainer of what determines the price of car fuel.
"The price of a retail gallon of gas is the sum of four things: the cost of crude oil, refining, distribution and marketing, and taxes.
Ultimately, the best protection against oil price shocks is a more efficient gas-burning vehicle, or one that doesn’t burn gasoline at all."
https://theconversation.com/whats-in-the-price-of-a-gallon-of-gas-281494
"Many countries have imposed temperature controls at government workplaces since the war began.
Malaysia is promoting wearing traditional cotton batik shirts and has also mandated offices set air conditioners to 24 degrees. "
"Around 13,000 flights were cancelled globally in May, resulting in two million fewer available seats, ... a 1.5 per cent reduction in total worldwide aviation capacity."
Also, higher prices, and restrictions or additional fees on baggage.
Heat pump sales jump as consumers recoil at high fossil fuel prices
"High demand for units in Europe suggests green technologies benefiting from energy price surge due to Iran war."
https://www.ft.com/content/571e9cc4-1b32-49ef-bc82-e550e9404d8f?
Once those heat pumps are installed, they stay, even after oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume.
That's #DemandDestruction.
"The looming energy cost crisis has prompted a record number of households to investigate green home upgrades to try to keep bills down, including heat pumps, solar panels and electric vehicles.
However, it is the falling cost of home batteries that is expected to be key to unlocking the greatest possible cost savings from these green investments."
Meanwhile in the USA, the admin is considering removing the Federal 18 cent per gallon gas tax. Which would bring the price of gas down from $4.50 to $4.32 a gallon, still above the $4 pain threshold.
The country was built to be car dependent, so gas is a non-negotiable expense. Inflation is up, consumer confidence down.
"Asked Tuesday whether Americans’ finances were motivating him to strike a deal, Trump replied, “Not even a little bit.”"
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/05/15/world/politics/us-gas-price-relief-scramble/
What are the impacts of energy crises and how can they be avoided?
"If a crisis persists, short-term pain becomes structural economic damage.
Transitioning towards a diversified clean energy mix is critical to tackling the vulnerabilities of fossil fuel systems – on top of the benefits for the climate."
An ‘energy crisis’ can occur when energy becomes scarce, unaffordable, or both. At the global level, these crises are typically driven by a tightening of supply, and sometimes by surging demand, or a mix of the two.
"The Australian government this week announced a $10bn fuel security package including $3.2bn to store a billion more litres of diesel and jet fuel.
There has been little talk from political leaders of the other way to lower the country’s risk from future fuel shocks – powering trucks with electricity."
"As the bloc's largest importer of liquefied natural gas through the Gulf, where Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused unprecedented energy supply disruption, Italy could have responded by accelerating the quest for renewable energy.
Instead it launched international searches for new gas suppliers, just as it did after Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine."
With Hormuz shut, Norway urges EU to rethink Arctic oil ban — despite analysts and environmentalists’ doubts
"No EU member really has any direct Arctic territory to be drilled.
The countries that do are Norway and Greenland, and they operate outside EU jurisdiction.
The biggest obstacle to Arctic oil and gas development are economic and geological, not political. Barents projects typically take five to 10 years to move from discovery to steady output."
Norway is pushing Brussels to rethink its long-standing opposition to oil and gas development in the European Arctic, pushing the EU into reviewing its strategy. But would it meaningfully increase Europe's energy security? And at what environmental cost?
Demand destruction is real, and large.
"“Actual end-use oil demand may have fallen more in response to higher prices than expected.”
The investment bank’s analysts estimate that the extent of demand destruction may have reached 2 million barrels daily in May, based on oil sales figures for China and Western Europe, the report said."
World oil consumption: 100 million bpd.
So 2% of that demand disappeared in a matter of weeks.
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu: “As long as we depend on oil and gas, we will continue to pay for other people’s wars.”
France will implement:
A ban on gas in new construction;
Subsidies for heat pumps;
2/3 of new cars electric by 2030.
Lecornu pointed out that a 100-kilometre journey costs on average between €2 and €3 in an electric vehicle, compared with an average of €11 for a diesel vehicle."
End the fossil fueled austerity.
https://www.euractiv.com/news/france-unveils-electrification-plan-to-cut-fossil-fuel-dependence/
Right? The rise of clean energy will shake up the world order. We don't know where things like hegemony and currency reserves will land, but they will be configured differently. We all need to do what we can so that the transition is non-violent.
CelloMom On Cars
Nicovel0 🍉