ok it turns out that printful marks orders as fulfilled when they ship out, which updates etsy to mark the order complete. but there's no further status flag if the shipping goes wrong - they're wholly relying on customers chasing up to find out what's going on, even if the courier's shipping status explicitly says "lost in transit" or "damaged". the CSV export also doesn't include the shipping status even though printful has it. I had to drive their website's backend APIs in the console myself.
anyway I just did an audit on the last 6 months of Unsafe Warnings orders and found three where it looks like the shipping went wrong but the customer hasn't contacted me yet. two explicitly say lost in transit, one is reported damaged but its status still shows "in transit" after 3 weeks.
sent messages to all three to ask if they got them ok.
this shouldn't be this complicated >_<