This is how the AI bubble bursts: https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/917380/ai-monetization-anthropic-openai-token-economics-revenue

There is no conceivable way to break even for the AI industry—let alone to repay an investment that requires $2Tn a year from now to the end of the decade. That's about 3% of the entire planetary GNP. Just to break even.

@cstross My longstanding suspicion is that there are two primary camps driving the Ai car towards the inevitable cliff.

In the passenger seat are the people deeply in Ai psychosis. Their brains are fully cooked, and they genuinely believe this will all lead to some amazing new future.

But in the driver seat, there are the people who know this isn't an economically viable product, who know that the money never made sense, and who know they will get bailed out with taxpayer (read:our) money.

@Legit_Spaghetti @cstross Sucks to be them, then, because if it takes another 18 months to burst and there's a period of delay until the rescue packages are constructed there won't be many people left with jobs to pay taxes, at the rate I'm seeing people losing their income.
@janeishly @Legit_Spaghetti @cstross They just throw it all into deficit spending, same as they throw all the tax cuts.

@janeishly @Legit_Spaghetti @cstross *they* won't get bailed out. They won't need it, they'll be fine. Risk is externalised.

The inevitable bailouts will be handed to the intermediaries - banks - who are now exposed to unimaginable losses of imaginary money, which would have very real terrible effects on very real people (first order: mortgage holders, mortgage holders' tenants, pension funds and their present and future pension recipients; second order: the dependents of the aforementioned, small businesses having or wanting credit lines, including businesses providing services to the bubble inflaters; third order ff: all of their employees and their dependents, dependent businesses and their employees etc...)

So bailouts will be necessary.

It would be no loss if Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, BlackRock, and all of the other huge gambler banks, sorry "investment banks", went bust. But they've carefully set themselves up at the base of the tower, where the small and medium banks that actually provide the direct credit access to most of the world's businesses and people, are fully dependent on the big fish. Risk is externalised.

So, bailouts will be necessary, I only wish the bailer-outers would - "somehow", this is tricky to set up, if at all possible - hand them only to said small and intermediate banks without flowing directly to the big ones anyway. Let the rigged casinos, sorry, "stock markets" burn down, fall over, and sink into the swamp; they're of no use as they are.

So, bailouts will be necessary. But they'll not go to the drivers of the current catastrophe car, they'll be blown on intermediary rent-seeking leeches on all industry. The original lot will be just fine because that props up the imaginary money they can continue to leverage to get real goods, services, and power.

Sorry about the rant. I'm just a wee bit angry.

@gabe @Legit_Spaghetti @cstross

I should not get into US politics, but (meaning, feel free to ignore me):

With the current admin and how buddy-buddies they are with AI peddlers, I'm not so sure they will not be bailed out; as @janeishly mentions, "people losing their income [because the tool they use for work no longer exists]". (I hope I got that meaning right).

@mdione @gabe @Legit_Spaghetti @cstross No, I meant "everyone I know who's a freelancer, and quite a lot of people in real jobs, are currently about 3 months away from bankruptcy - so where's the tax revenue going to come from for any putative bailout?"

But I agree that "the thing I used for work no longer exists" is another crisis waiting to happen.