The Bad PlaceEnglish – The Conversation | Auction sales are sliding, banks are tightening loans. But is the budget really the only factor? by James Graham, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney
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The recent Australian federal budget—introducing reforms to negative gearing and the capital‑gains‑tax discount—has prompted banks to tighten lending to property investors and has coincided with a dip in auction clearance rates, which fell to about 50‑60 % nationally, though this decline was already underway due to higher interest rates and economic uncertainty. While Treasury modelling suggests house‑price growth will be about 2 % slower than otherwise expected, other forecasts range from a modest 1 % fall to a steep correction of up to 10 %, reflecting the market’s pre‑budget softness. Prices remain unaffordable, with median home values more than eight times median household income, and the reforms are likely to affect investors’ preferred small‑apartment segment more than family homes on the suburbs’ edge. Consequently, the market’s recent cooling reflects both the budget’s policy changes and broader macro‑economic pressures, and it would be inaccurate to blame the budget alone for the current slowdown.
