Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
CANADA
HIGH [no change]
About 1 of every 188 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 8.0 x higher
-Long COVID: 6.0 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 4.5 x higher
-Deaths: 3.9 x higher
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Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
HIGH [no change]
About 1 of every 87 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 7.5 x higher
-Long COVID: 5.9 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 10.2 x higher
-Deaths: 8.3 x higher
Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
MODERATE [decreasing]
About 1 of every 290 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 6.9 x higher
-Long COVID: 5.1 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 3.7 x higher
-Deaths: 2.4 x higher
Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
NOVA SCOTIA
MODERATE [decreasing]
About 1 of every 302 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 7.0 x higher
-Long COVID: 6.2 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 4.0 x higher
-Deaths: 2.3 x higher
Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
NEW BRUNSWICK
MODERATE [decreasing]
About 1 of every 289 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 8.4 x higher
-Long COVID: 6.4 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 4.3 x higher
-Deaths: 2.4 x higher
Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
QUÉBEC
MODERATE [no change]
About 1 of every 197 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 5.3 x higher
-Long COVID: 6.2 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 4.2 x higher
-Deaths: 2.6 x higher
Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
ONTARIO
MODERATE [no change]
About 1 of every 257 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 8.6 x higher
-Long COVID: 5.7 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 4.0 x higher
-Deaths: 2.4 x higher
Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
MANITOBA
HIGH [no change]
About 1 of every 302 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 9.1 x higher
-Long COVID: 6.2 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 4.2 x higher
-Deaths: 2.3 x higher
Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
SASKATCHEWAN
HIGH [decreasing]
About 1 of every 367 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 9.5 x higher
-Long COVID: 7.2 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 4.5 x higher
-Deaths: 2.3 x higher
Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
ALBERTA
VERY HIGH [increasing]
About 1 of every 130 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 12.5 x higher
-Long COVID: 6.3 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 8.1 x higher
-Deaths: 9.9 x higher
Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
BRITISH COLUMBIA
HIGH [increasing]
About 1 of every 112 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 6.2 x higher
-Long COVID: 5.4 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 5.5 x higher
-Deaths: 5.6 x higher
Canadian COVID Forecast May 9 - May 22, 2026
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
HIGH [no change]
About 1 of every 577 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 8.4 x higher
-Long COVID: 6.1 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 4.7 x higher
-Deaths: 4.8 x higher
For links to resources, explanations of the forecast methods, and past forecasts, please see our pinned 🧵 here:
bsky.app/profile/mori...
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/post/3lhcg4t5ra22tRemember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends.
The next forecast will be posted on May 25th, 2026
Tara Moriarty
