Tara MoriartyCanadian COVID Forecast: May 9 - May 22, 2026
SEVERE: none
VERY HIGH: AB
HIGH: CAN, BC, MB, NL, North, SK
MODERATE: NS, ON, PEI, QC
About 1 in 188 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
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Notre aperçu national en français : bsky.app/profile/mori...
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WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?
About 1 in 188 people in Canada is currently infected (6,000-387,000 infections/week).
The confidence interval for infection estimates this week is very broad, at -/+ 97%.
This is because waste water has begun increasing again in some provinces, but other indicators have not.
The most recent estimate for the United States (May 11) is 1 in 272 infected (www.pmc19.com/data/index.php ).
Please note that our estimates are based on waste water, but also …
Pandemic Mitigation Collaborat...
Pandemic Mitigation Collaborat...
… historical survey-based surveillance data from Quebec, test positivity rates and excess mortality (adjusted for excess deaths attributable to toxic drugs, healthcare system overload, medical assistance in dying, influenza and pneumonia).
Infections are increasing in some provinces.
Hospitalizations and deaths are decreasing or stable in most provinces.
Expected excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Canada is HIGH (5%, Forecast score 5).
Infections in Canada this week are expected to result in 900 hospitalizations, 210 premature deaths (people who die at least 1 year earlier than they would without COVID) and 5,200 new long COVID cases serious enough to limit daily life activities.
About 2.1% of people in Canada are infected and/or experiencing life activity-limiting long COVID this week.
The estimated cost of hospitalizations from this week's infections in Canada is $20.1M.
Hospitalizations are expected to require 1.6% of Canada's staffed hospital beds for three weeks (CIHI: average duration of COVID hospitalizations).
www.cihi.ca/en/covid-19-...
CONFIDENCE OF ESTIMATES
The average confidence interval since Dec 5/21 is 6.6%.
Average annual infection prevalence, infection fatality and hospitalization rates for Canada from 2022-2024 are similar to UK data from ONS and Ward et al 2024 (prevalence 1.01X UK, IFR 1.01X UK, IHR 1.01X UK; p>0.05).
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The real-time infection hospit...
The real-time infection hospit...
The real-time infection hospitalisation and fatality risk across the COVID-19 pandemic in England - Nature Communications
The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varied over the course of the pandemic due to factors such as changes in variant characteristics and population immunity from previous infection or vaccination. Here, the authors estimate infection hospitalisation and infection fatality rates in England over time from the start of the pandemic until March 2023.
Based on population age structure and health, and hospital capacity, Canada's population IFR is expected to be 1.01-1.05X the UK population IFR.
FOCUS ON REGIONS:
We are behind in posting reporting data from some provinces. We will resume the Focus on Regions section next forecast.
@mswcreations.bsky.social is having a virtual Full Moon circle for COVID-conscious women and gender-diverse folx on Wednesday June 3rd, 2026. Join here, it's PWYC: medicinesongwoman.com/events
Upcoming Public Events with Br...
Upcoming Public Events with Br...
COVID outbreak risk remains in #ONhealth hospitals without layers of protection.
Universal masking in ALL areas of #Ontario hospitals is essential for safe healthcare access.
Let regional decision-makers know this is a priority.
@[email protected]
Take action: safecare.initiative.works
Safe Care Ontario
Safe Care Ontario
The regional Canadian COVID forecast can be found here: bsky.app/profile/mori...
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For links to resources, explanations of the forecast methods, and past forecasts, please see our pinned 🧵 here: bsky.app/profile/mori...
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Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends.
The next forecast will be posted on May 25th, 2026
Thanks to @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] and @[email protected] for data input, graphics, and translation.
Thanks to the whole COVID-19 Resources Canada team for weekly feedback and for keeping all our work going.
