Tara Moriarty
Canadian COVID Forecast: May 9 - May 22, 2026 SEVERE: none VERY HIGH: AB HIGH: CAN, BC, MB, NL, North, SK MODERATE: NS, ON, PEI, QC About 1 in 188 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
May 12 at 1:02amWeb
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
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Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
Notre aperçu national en français : bsky.app/profile/mori...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/post/3mlmlxminis2o
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK? About 1 in 188 people in Canada is currently infected (6,000-387,000 infections/week).
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
The confidence interval for infection estimates this week is very broad, at -/+ 97%. This is because waste water has begun increasing again in some provinces, but other indicators have not.
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
The most recent estimate for the United States (May 11) is 1 in 272 infected (www.pmc19.com/data/index.php ). Please note that our estimates are based on waste water, but also …

Pandemic Mitigation Collaborat...
Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative - COVID-19 Data Dashboard

Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
… historical survey-based surveillance data from Quebec, test positivity rates and excess mortality (adjusted for excess deaths attributable to toxic drugs, healthcare system overload, medical assistance in dying, influenza and pneumonia).
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
Infections are increasing in some provinces. Hospitalizations and deaths are decreasing or stable in most provinces.
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
Expected excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Canada is HIGH (5%, Forecast score 5).
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
Infections in Canada this week are expected to result in 900 hospitalizations, 210 premature deaths (people who die at least 1 year earlier than they would without COVID) and 5,200 new long COVID cases serious enough to limit daily life activities.
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
About 2.1% of people in Canada are infected and/or experiencing life activity-limiting long COVID this week. The estimated cost of hospitalizations from this week's infections in Canada is $20.1M.
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
Hospitalizations are expected to require 1.6% of Canada's staffed hospital beds for three weeks (CIHI: average duration of COVID hospitalizations). www.cihi.ca/en/covid-19-...
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
CONFIDENCE OF ESTIMATES The average confidence interval since Dec 5/21 is 6.6%.
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
Average annual infection prevalence, infection fatality and hospitalization rates for Canada from 2022-2024 are similar to UK data from ONS and Ward et al 2024 (prevalence 1.01X UK, IFR 1.01X UK, IHR 1.01X UK; p>0.05). www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The real-time infection hospit...
The real-time infection hospitalisation and fatality risk across the COVID-19 pandemic in England - Nature Communications

The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varied over the course of the pandemic due to factors such as changes in variant characteristics and population immunity from previous infection or vaccination. Here, the authors estimate infection hospitalisation and infection fatality rates in England over time from the start of the pandemic until March 2023.

Nature
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
Based on population age structure and health, and hospital capacity, Canada's population IFR is expected to be 1.01-1.05X the UK population IFR.
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
FOCUS ON REGIONS: We are behind in posting reporting data from some provinces. We will resume the Focus on Regions section next forecast.
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
@mswcreations.bsky.social is having a virtual Full Moon circle for COVID-conscious women and gender-diverse folx on Wednesday June 3rd, 2026. Join here, it's PWYC: medicinesongwoman.com/events

Upcoming Public Events with Br...
Upcoming Public Events with Brenda MacIntyre

Virtual workshops, circles and performances with live Indigenous music and mindfulness practices. Check out upcoming events here...

Brenda MacIntyre, Medicine Song Woman
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
COVID outbreak risk remains in #ONhealth hospitals without layers of protection. Universal masking in ALL areas of #Ontario hospitals is essential for safe healthcare access. Let regional decision-makers know this is a priority. @[email protected] Take action: safecare.initiative.works

Safe Care Ontario
Safe Care Ontario

Advocating for universal masking protections in healthcare and other mitigation tools. Airborne pathogens like SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the COVID-19 disease, pose a risk to EVERYONE's health and safety.

Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
The regional Canadian COVID forecast can be found here: bsky.app/profile/mori...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/post/3mlmlu7sugs2o
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
For links to resources, explanations of the forecast methods, and past forecasts, please see our pinned 🧵 here: bsky.app/profile/mori...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/post/3lhcg4t5ra22t
Show threadTara MoriartyMay 12
Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends. The next forecast will be posted on May 25th, 2026