It's a Good Cloud Day. But the goats are very annoyed there was a teeny tiny bit of rain (they really do not like rain).
And now time for my morning radio interview. At least I had time for (most of) a cup of tea first.
hahaha oh no I forgot I was supposed to be on Google Meets for this interview not a phone call! Luckily my computer cooperated and the producer was very understanding. I just am wearing a ratty farm sweatshirt and didn't brush my hair and have a messy room in the background. Oops. Luckily I've got another interview for Saskatoon in 15 minutes so I can try to do better this time...
Interview 2 went much better (which is good, Saskatoon is where it's most likely that pieces would be found, if there are any pieces) and I remembered to say the email address I want people to send possible space junk finds to! AND I got a better camera setup and actually brushed my hair. But I'm somehow going to end up on CBC national news in my ratty farm sweatshirt AGAIN aren't I?

A scary quick calculation: there are 10,375 Starlink satellites in orbit https://planet4589.org/space/con/conlist.html, all coming down within 5 years.

That's an *average* of 5 or 6 a day for the next 5 years. And the v2's are bigger than the v1's. v2's are (conservatively) 1000kg and (conservatively) half aluminum. That's 2.5-3 tonnes of aluminum per day. 8 times the natural infall rate of aluminum (and there's lots of other scary things like lithium). What will that do to our atmosphere?

SpaceX is awful.

Jonathan's Space Report | Space Statistics

Jonathan McDowell's new homepage

@sundogplanets

Wasn't that the plot of Seveneves?

@Perrin42 @sundogplanets

Had the idea it involved an ablation cascade aka Kessler syndrome.

@angelastella @Perrin42 @sundogplanets
Of a rather larger initial mass!
The Moon.

@Photo55 @Perrin42 @sundogplanets

Remembering now! yeah, I really must read the book.

@angelastella
It is really quite good.

Separately, one of the discussions I've seen in #SciFi is of the minimum size of society for prolonged survival in Space.
Large.

@Photo55

I remember a good discussion about that topic on Charles Stross' weblog. If the idea is having modern industry, it could run to millions.

@angelastella
That's the one.
Various scifi authors have introduced ideas - rather deus ex machina ones - to reduce the number of bodies required to hold thouse skills and functions.
I suppose now YouTube etc is a bit of a start ;)

@Photo55

Sharing practical knowledge is a must. And it's the kind of thing we already do, not like molecular nanotechnology enabling cornucopia machines, or either versatile robots, or something else.

@angelastella
#JohnBrunner with Eptification - with a bad result - and #JoeHaldeman with some sort of overlays in #WorldsApart and assorted authors with "memory tapes and of course #TheMatrix "now I do!"

And in a less friendly way #LarryNiven with #Corpsicles and #RichardMorgan with the #DigitallyStoredHumans and #DigitallyFreightedHumans and uploading into a sleeve.

And a bunch more.

#SciFi

@Photo55

Yes, shortcuts to make the most of limited bodies. But to keep a closed ecology plus the mechanical part of the habitat and some mining/manufacturing capability there's no easy substitute for those bodies, and I'm afraid the number needed is still higher than expected.