🌩️ PROGNOZA ESTOFEX

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 12 May 2026 06:00 to Wed 13 May 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 11 May 2026 10:53
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued across parts of SE Romania, Bulgaria into NE Greece and NW Turkey mainly for large to very large hail, severe gusts and regionally enhanced for heavy rain.A level 1 surrounds the level 2 for similar hazards with lowered probabilities. In addition, a regionally enhanced tornado risk exists (e.g. Slovenia/far NE Italy during the morning).A level 1 was issued for NE Spain mainly for hail, gusts and heavy rain.A level 1 was issued for parts of W Russia mainly for hail and gusts.SYNOPSISA blocking anticyclone is placed over the NE North Atlantic/N-Africa and both steer a longwave trough into CNTRL Europe. This through gets sheared apart as jet phasing occurs in its S quadrant and it acquires a negative tilt from E-CNTRL into SE Europe. During the night, a new impulse of low geopotential heights approaches from NW Europe and re-charges another longwave trough over CNTRL Europe for the following days.At lower levels, a wavy boundary runs from NE towards E-CNTRL Europe before bending W towards the N Adriatic Sea. A more diffuse boundary extends towards NE Spain with only marginal S movement betimes. More fronts approach NW Europe during the forecast period but marginal moisture content precludes more substantial thunderstorm activity.DISCUSSION... NE Spain towards the NW Mediterranean ...The passage of a short wave, coupled with cyclonic mid/upper flow and placed in the left exit of a 110 kt H3 jet create a favorable environment for scattered thunderstorms during the forecast. Cooling mid-levels atop modest low-tropospheric moisture assists in 400-800 J/kg MUCAPE onshore, increasing to more than 1 kJ/kg offshore. EFI MUCAPE highlights the offshore areas with anomalous values, whereas EFI CAPE/shear keeps the focus along the coast of NE Spain.Shear/C...

Pełna treść: https://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2026051306_202605111053_2_stormforecast.xml
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