🌩️ PROGNOZA ESTOFEX

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 11 May 2026 06:00 to Tue 12 May 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 10 May 2026 22:58
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 2 was issued across central part of N Italy mainly for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent tornadoes.A level 2 was issued across NE Italy, W Slovenia and Istria mainly for heavy rainfall, tornadoes and to a lesser extent large hail.A level 1 was issued for NW Italy mainly for large to very large hail.A level 1 was issued for SE France mainly for heavy rainfall and large hail.A level 2 was issued for E Croatia, N Bosnia, S Hungary and Serbia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.A level 2 was issued for Bulgaria for large hail and severe wind gusts.A level 1 was issued from Croatia to Romania and Bulgaria mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.A level 1 was issued from Austria through Czechia, central and north Hungary to Slovakia and Poland mainly for heavy rainfall. Tornado threat will be elevated to some degree from NE Slovakia to E Poland.A level 1 was issued across Turkey and Caucasus mainly for large hail and heavy rainfall.A level 1 was issued for central west Russia mainly for heavy rainfall.DISCUSSION... N Italy to Slovenia and Istria ...A short-wave trough is forecast to cross the area during the day with synoptic-scale lift overspreading Piemonte in the late morning hours and shifting to NE Italy and Slovenia by 18 UTC. A cold front, located north of the Alps, is not expected to influence the region. Airmass will be characterized by specific humidity of around 10 g/kg combined with mid-tropospheric lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 K/km. MLCAPE values of 500 to 2000 J/kg are simulated with the highest values over Piemonte and just north of the Apennines. Several mesoscale lift mechanisms will initiate storms during the forecast period. First, the orography is forecast to trigger storms, especially over t...

Pełna treść: https://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2026051206_202605102258_2_stormforecast.xml
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