JA WestenbergWe’ve gone from "this is too ghoulish to exist" in 2003 to "this is the new wisdom-of-crowds infrastructure" in 2026. And it's a symptom of how we, all of us, are coming apart.
Prediction markets are, I think, the clearest single sign that our civilisation has entered a late and decadent stage.
Why prediction markets are a sure sign that our civilisation is in decay
Prediction markets are the clearest single sign our civilisation has entered a late and decadent stage. The reason isn't that they're new or sinister. It's that the case for them is defensible, the technology works, the outputs are useful, but the long-term effect is corrosive anyway.
Simon B