really wish that I had a more accessible way to explain "something that is right 90% of the time is vastly more dangerous than something that is wrong 90% of the time" to people.
'cuz to me this is incredibly obvious, and also I do understand why people without threat modeling experience would believe the opposite, but bridging that gap is a real bastard.
@munin idk if this helps but I think of the fact that you'll always verify stuff from the low-accuracy method but you'll probably just trust the more reliable one when 10% of the time you shouldn't.

@MultimediaMage

This bounces off the "well I'm careful so I'll notice when it's wrong" meme.

@munin I've watched enough USCSB videos and read enough NTSB reports to know that "complacency is a killer" so it's quite intuitive to me as well: if it works fine 90% of the time and doesn't obviously fail for the 10%, you will eventually get complacent and stop or half-ass checking it enough to "fall for" the 10% at some point. It's just human nature. There's a reason that pilots have strict checklists to follow, with Every. Single. Step. written down on them, and even still there's the occasional incident because the checklist wasn't followed.
@munin presumably because in the former case you’re less likely to catch it when it fails? i don’t threat model per se, as in, it’s not something i learnt or do professionally but that’s my understanding/ guess