If you've ever been in a conversation with me (IRL!) about the turmoil that #AI is causing our industry, you'll know that I have a theory about what's going to happen, based largely on observations and y2k. For some of us, it's optimistic.
I thought I'd put that into a blog post: https://www.rocketpoweredjetpants.com/2026/04/were-going-to-make-out-like-bandits/ #softwareengineering
We're definitely in some kind of liminal space. The old world is fading fast before our eyes, but it's not yet clear what will replace it.
To my mind, that's very similar to what happened during the Industrial Revolution. I don't think people at the very start would have been able to tell you which new jobs would appear to replace the ones that we're disappearing, even as they sensed that _something_ would.
I think we're in the same position now, and that's why I'm not too worried about what job my child will do. They're sufficiently young that at least some of this will have shaken out, and we'll have a clearer view of where we're going.
@arichtman I'm not sure. The demand for COBOL programmers has dropped dramatically since y2k, but it didn't stop market dynamics when they were needed.
Will senior developers be needed in the same way in ten years time? I doubt it, because I think that what we consider to be software development will have changed too, and we'll have better guardrails in place to deal with issues that are currently plaguing us.
@arichtman agreed. Not everyone is going to make out like bandits. There’s links in the post to some reports about how the market is already shifting. Junior roles are increasingly hard to come by.
Having said that, I think the senior folks who survive the coming purges are going to be in a great position, at least for a while.
Will I be in that group? I don’t know. One way to find out…. :)
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