Solarbird 1d ago

I'm still trying to dig up the actual terms, but I am finding sure makes it look like Iran has achieved a massive strategic victory over Team Shitstain. Most notably:

"The two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, a regional official said Wednesday.

...

The strait is in the territorial waters of both Oman and Iran. The world had considered the passage an international waterway and never paid tolls before."

https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/ap-the-latest-iran-rejects-ceasefire-deal-as-trumps-deadline-for-attacks-on-infrastructure-nears/

#iran #war #morons #fools #TeamShitstain #FuckTrump #FuckTheGOP #FuckRepublicans #shipping #oil #StraitofHormuz

Show threadSolarbird 1d ago

I think Wikipedia will eventually call this a major Iranian victory, not just because of the above, but also since this means sanctions are pretty much done, which in turn means the containment policy is kinda over.

All in all, the regime comes out richer and victorious, their propaganda validated, and in a stronger position overall. The small gulf states that _used to_ have free access to the sea no longer do, so they're no doubt feeling pretty fucking betrayed. But that's what you get for cozying up to the Shitstain - or the GOP in general, which never met an ally it wouldn't betray.

Iran will probably throw out a few tokens to help Shitstain claim victory (or maybe not, he'll claim it regardless) but... what a shitshow.

#iran #war

Show threadPatrick1d ago
@moira This is probably the same type of victory Trump will claim after China takes Taiwan by military force. Our assets are now in the Med and middle east. We have depleted a lot of our munitions. Trump is confused and weak. Congress is divided. Given what a fiasco he is as commander in chief, China might not wait to take Taiwan until after Trump’s successor is elected. There probably isn’t a better time than now. But everybody makes mistakes. Even China.
Show threadSolarbird 

@patrick The bigger concern here for me is the South China Sea and that network of artificial islands they're setting up to try to claim it as their sovereign territory.

That doesn't mean you're wrong, mind you, that's just not what comes to mind first.

Apr 8 at 3:33amWeb
Show threadPatrick14h ago
@moira I am not an expert on the Chinese military, etc. (Understatement of the century.) But I think Trump’s Middle East Adventure weakened the US. In addition it reduces our ability to use moral and legal persuasion. Sone of our strength came from being able to persuade other countries to join with us in international disputes. Opposing the Chinese invasion of Taiwan with force would be one of those issues. We need allies.
Show threadSolarbird 13h ago

@patrick Oh, severely!

Okay, so: the precedent being set here is against open seas. Open seas - meaning passage through - was a critical component of the post-war order. Both the US and the USSR would make points of sending ships through open-seas areas that the other would on some level _really like_ to claim as their own ponds.

This agreement basically shoots that in the face. Not on the larger open waters, no, but it's still a step very much in the wrong direction, and it's a step that other countries which would like to claim big areas of the oceans as their own, for a variety of reasons. And one of those countries is China.

So that's what I'm on about here, and why _while you are correct_, it's the higher-level concern to me.