And the posts, they keep on coming.
I hundred percent agree with @filippo here, the question is not whether we're certain that a quantum computer exists by 2029, it's whether we're certain that one doesn't exist. And things have progressed far enough that non-physicists, or even physicists working in different subfields, can no longer reliably tell what's going on.

https://words.filippo.io/crqc-timeline/

A Cryptography Engineer’s Perspective on Quantum Computing Timelines

The risk that cryptographically-relevant quantum computers materialize within the next few years is now high enough to be dispositive, unfortunately.

@sophieschmieg @filippo @soatok the candidates for near term FTQC require very substantial infrastructure and massive upgrades in capacity from some niche industries. Only PsiQuantum has bought the land needed so far. A FTQC does not currently exist.