From Zineb Riboua:

'[Iran's] survival depends on three pillars — an ideology, a patronage network and a coercive apparatus drawing legitimacy from a founding idea.

'And Iran was already decomposing when Operation Epic Fury began.

'When the IRGC selected Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father, it violated the Islamic Republic’s own founding principles, which bar hereditary succession.

'... Arab states that once tolerated Tehran’s reach are now coordinating with Trump to eliminate the threat.

'An IRGC confronting a [US] president unafraid of escalation is an IRGC that cannot dictate the terms of its own survival.

'American and Israeli strikes have reached the core of the IRGC’s command and control structure, and no volume of social-media output changes what those commanders can no longer do.

']Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s US ambassador, captured with precision what must come next: “We need boots on the ground, but they have got to be Iranian boots, and I think they’re coming”'.
https://nypost.com/2026/04/03/opinion/all-the-pieces-are-lining-up-for-regime-change-in-iran/