The danger to #Putin’s personal hold on power is posed by the example of a prosperous, stable, democratic and free neighbor. #Ukraine has “provoked” Putin by not being #Belarus: an impoverished, rickety and weak state ruled by a dictator obedient to Putin.
https://www.theunpopulist.net/p/the-leading-realist-theorist-ignores?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
The Leading Realist Theorist Ignores Reality to Depict Putin as the Victim

John Mearsheimer’s analytic framework blinds him to the Russian dictator’s real motives for invading democratic Ukraine

The UnPopulist
Putin told us clearly in 2021, he views territorial expansion as necessary to defend the “Russian World” while asserting that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people.” It doesn’t matter what the Ukrainians themselves think about that, because they are to have no say in the matter
#Mearsheimer describes IR as “a state of relentless security competition, with the possibility of war always in the background.” He insists that states do act in what they perceive to be their interests, but also that they “should always act according to their own self-interest.”
The attractiveness of his theory lies in the robust claim that states always act in certain ways. But introducing the normative claim about what they “should” do is a telling sleight of hand. It leaves little to no space for ideas or values . . .
States are not solid billiard balls; they are complex assemblies of persons, powers and ties, more like interacting clouds of interests, some of which are aligned and some of which conflict. #Mearsheimer fails to account for the divergence of interests between a ruler and a state
#Putin's made it clear through both words and deeds that he sees no “interest in having a prosperous and stable” neighborhood; the view that he has such an interest is a preposterous fantasy entirely of #Mearsheimer’s creation. Putin’s ideology of the “Russian World” explains why
A hyper-nationalistic dictatorship has attacked a pluralistic democracy, not because the dictator feared any loss of territory or any threat to the security of the state he effectively owns but because he perceives the existence of that democracy as a threat to his personal power
Any democracy, under #Mearsheimer’s account, can threaten an autocracy merely by existing successfully, wherever it might demonstrate to a captive population that another way of organizing political life is possible.