A very nice explainer why "if you're so worried about quantum computers, why haven't they factored 21 yet?" isn't a very convincing argument. Look at the labels of the graph, and how extremely close the various lines are for factoring 21 and 2048 bit numbers. Polynomial scaling remains polynomial, unfortunately, and by the time you can factor 21 you're almost ready to break RSA.

https://bas.westerbaan.name/notes/2026/04/02/factoring.html

Factoring is not a good benchmark to track Q-day

Homepage of dr. Bas Westerbaan, principal research engineer at Cloudflare, working on making the Internet post-quantum secure

@sophieschmieg A physicist I used to work for said quantum computing is very good right now for getting grant money to develop very nice ADC's and detector circuitry, which is useful for astronomy and particle physics.

He admitted when I pressed him that he agrees that the actual computing part is complete bunk and going nowhere.

@poleguy @sophieschmieg I’m reminded of the thing that goes around occasionally about how Loch Ness is a great place to be a marine biologist because you can get money from people trying to find Nessie. And in the “search” you end up doing some really cool research most people can’t do because they don’t have that sort of funding.