ddp26A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses
> Starship at $170B is pure option value on technology still in advanced testing.
The argument that Starship is somehow an experimental/unproven technology that might fail to materialise was absurd but plausible sounding before flight 1, there were many new technologies simultaneously being deployed to a single launch system in one go.
But after 3 tower catches of the booster demonstrating centimetres of guided precision of the entire stack, this is becoming a tired argument.
I know the author is not making that case at all here, but it seems like one the core reasons to undervalue SpaceX is that Starship might not work out, and this all sounds exactly like how reusability might not work out for the Falcon 9 from 10 years ago.
The booster is definitely looking good, just like the Falcon 9 booster is very reliable. The big question for me is the upper stage, and whether they will be able to reuse anywhere near as often as they claim. It is so much more complex than the Falcon upper stages, which aren't reusable very quickly. It seems they have a lot to learn about upper stage reusability.