ddp26Apr 2

A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

https://futuresearch.ai/spacex-ipo-valuation/

A $1.75 Trillion IPO Would Be Overpaying 30% for SpaceX

A sum-of-the-parts forecast of SpaceX's fair market value across seven business segments. The $1.75 trillion IPO target is approximately 29% above the median fair value of $1.25 trillion.

FutureSearch
Show threadsharemywin

Not bad for about $12-$16B in total actual revenue.

net income probably: $1.5B – $3B

P/E:500-1000

Of course people will trip overthemselves to buy it up.

Apr 2 at 5:04pmWeb
Show threadarealaccountApr 2
According to commentators on other threads people with any index funds will be automatically buying, no need to trip over ourselves
Show threadelevationApr 2
Any funds you'd recommend that would preserve the legacy 1 year watch period?
Show threadheyitsmedotjaybApr 2
I remember when this happened with Nortel!
Show threadddp26Apr 2

Yeah, it's wild. But it's not like the P/E should be 30, what do you think would be fair?

That's the thing about SpaceX, some businesses are real businesses that can be modeled in normal ways, like the government launch contracts, and to some degree starlink.

Others, like ~all of xAI, and the starship stuff, are being valued completely independent of revenue. I predict the IPO investors will generally follow the analysis consensus today with those eye-popping numbers.

Show threadbrentmApr 2
It's hard to imagine this turn into 50-60% short term banger starting from a $1.75T market cap, I wonder if people will actually trip over themselves to buy. I had been thinking I wanted to jump on it to flip but at that price and the macro environment it may end up cratering before a pop. Seems like a sketchy buy.
Show threadsfblahApr 2
I just don't think space is as useful or profitable as people think. Time will tell.
Show threadBombthecatApr 2
As long as we don't find a new it energy to get stuff up, I don't think so.
Show threadpilgrim0Apr 2
You could argue that space is highly useful for creating profitable narratives. You could even argue that this is the whole game.
Show threadlxgrApr 2
But consider that they will eventually own the entire observable universe excluding Earth! /s