RE: https://mastodon.social/@lawfare/116048314109181139

Lawfare has the unsealed affidavits for the Fulton County elections office search warrants, which are online at the link.

I’ve so far only skimmed, but a couple initial impressions.

-Lots of mentions of small discrepancies, but not much that appears to establish PC of an actual crime. Some of the alleged discrepancies were previously refuted by GA officials.

-Nothing mentioned (such as an indictment) that would stop the 5 year statute of limitations clock; all the acts are > 5 years ago.

Again, I’ve not yet read the docs carefully. But it’s worth noting that mere discrepancies aren’t crimes, and small errors and mishaps are normal and expected in something as large scale as this. Also, these seem to be related to the statewide machine recount, which was a new process partly invented on the fly, intended to validate the initial results.

And the statute of limitations problem is significant. It may have been addressed in some other filing or hearing, but it’s not explained here.

I’m NOT saying there’s nothing to any of this, only that the affidavits don’t themselves suggest that there’s all that much here.

Much is made of the presence of "pristine" absentee ballots, which is the term they use for ballots that lacked creases from being folded and sealed in an envelope. The assert that there's no innocent explanation for this, since all absentee ballots have to arrive in an envelope.

But there *is* an explanation. UOCAVA ballots, a generic ballot form used by some overseas/military voters, aren't machine readable. They have to be transcribed onto a regular ballot form for tabulation.

There'd be no reason to expect transcribed UOCAVA ballots to have creases, since they're created in the election office after the mailed ballot from the voter is opened.
The agent who swore out the affidavit appears to be relatively junior (5 years out of the academy), with no apparent specific cybersecurity or elections speciality background (he was a lawyer before joining the FBI). He appears to have taken all the witness's suspicions at face value, with little or no discussion of confounding explanations or discussions with election experts (except for the discussion of tabulator tapes with Parikh).
If these affidavits constitute the entirety of the probable cause presented to the court, I'm surprised that the judge granted the warrant.
In particular, as the affidavit correctly notes, mere discrepancies or procedural mistakes do not by themselves constitute a crime. The crimes require deliberate malicious conduct. But the affidavit presents virtually no evidence that any conduct that led to the discrepancies was deliberate, or even who was responsible for it.
The standard for getting a search warrant isn't a complete case ready for trial or proof beyond a reasonable doubt. It's "probable cause" to believe that the search will yield evidence of a crime. But here, they don't even lay out, to my eyes, probable cause to believe there even was a crime in the first place.
Usually in warrant affidavits like this, you'll see lines like "Based on my training and experience, <some evidence> is indicative of <criminal conduct>. There's NONE of that here. Just quotes from witnesses who said they were suspicious, generally for unspecified reasons and without analysis.

You might think, "well if there are discrepancies, shouldn't they be investigated?"

The 2020 election in GA HAS been investigated. It's one of the most closely scrutinized elections in US history, and has been the subject of an almost endless stream of litigation and analysis. This case is not the only opportunity to find out about the GA election.

Also, this is a federal criminal investigation, a very powerful tool with the capacity to wreck people's lives. Not something to do frivolously.

In short, I'm trying to give every benefit of the doubt to the feds here, but this case seems to be extremely thin and well below what you'd expect to warrant a federal criminal investigation.

For l the reasons I noted as well as many others, I don’t expect the case related to the Fulton County search to end with any federal criminal convictions, and I’d be surprised if there were even indictments.

But that’s not the only impact here. The GA state elections board is reportedly using the investigation to move toward taking over the Fulton County elections office, under a provision of GA election law.

This would not be a FEDERAL takeover, since the elections would still be operated by the state. But it would alter the political dynamics of Fulton County elections, since the GA state elections board is R controlled, while the locally-elected Fulton County office is D controlled.

The plot continues to thicken in the Fulton County GA elections search warrant case.

(tl;dr: Earlier this year, the feds got a criminal search warrant to seize an expansive range of documents related to the 2020 election, despite no clear probable cause of a prosecutable crime) https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72267501/71/pitts-v-united-states/

At a hearing last Friday, the judge asked whether the warrant was an abuse of criminal procedure as an end run in a civil case seeking the same docs.

Fulton Cty's filing: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72267501/71/pitts-v-united-states/

In other words, there were existing state and federal CIVIL cases seeking these documents already in the works. Civil cases move slowly, and the production of the records was not likely to be resolved for a while. In particular, SEARCH WARRANTS are not a thing in civil cases (in which the cops show up and seize evidence). That's only for criminal cases.

In civil cases, there are subpoenas, in which the subject is ordered to produce documents, but can challenge it in court before complying.

Here, Fulton County is alleging (and the judge seems to be taking seriously) that the federal government opened a sham criminal investigation and obtained a search warrant simply as an end run around the slow process in the civil case, with no actual prosecutable crime at the root. That would be a significant abuse, which the court would likely react strongly to.
There were some other rulings in the case as well. Fulton County wanted to depose the agent who swore the warrant affidavit, but was denied that on procedural grounds (it's a high burden).
A reminder: If I report on what's going on in case like this, I'm simply reporting on what's happening. That does not imply I endorse or am defending the particular laws involved, the courts, or the conduct of any party.

In any case, this is a significant escalation. Fulton started with the basic argument that the warrant shouldn't have been issued (because no credible probable cause was alleged and the statute of limitations had passed on any possible crimes), and that therefore the documents should be returned. In other words, that the magistrate judge erred in issuing the warrant.

Now, they're also effectively alleging actual fraud by the government in seeking the warrant in the first place.

Buy popcorn.

@mattblaze
Yeah, sounds like it could be some substantial misconduct with serious consequences 😲
@me_valentijn @mattblaze Consequences for Trump officials ignoring the law, judges, or the constitution? I've yet to see any

@rpluim @me_valentijn The consequences available to the judge in this case would be to grant the petitioner's motion to have the documents returned, and possibly to refer various lawyers to their bar authorities for disciplinary action if he believes anyone misrepresented facts.

This is how courts work. And the administration has faced consequences like this in quite a few cases in the last year.

@mattblaze @me_valentijn Perhaps I should have said "real consequences": fines, jail time, ineligibility, that kind of thing.

@rpluim Well, that's mostly outside what a judge can do. Judges are limited to ruling on the cases before them.

This is a case seeking return of documents.

@mattblaze So if a judge says "do not deport this person pending my decision", and they deport him anyway, they can't go to jail for contempt? I've been lied to by US TV series all these years 😃
@rpluim Judges can issue orders to parties in the case, but their authority to do that isn't unlimited.

@rpluim In any case, while some people seem to find it personally satisfying to cry about about how legal remedies are powerless to stop the all-powerful Trump administration, I find that fatalism to be both factually wrong (they keep losing cases, in fact), and counter productive (challenging them in court has often been quite effective at countering their abuses).

As for me, I'll continue to keep an eye on and report about the cases I find interesting and relevant.

@rpluim You, of course, are free to think I'm an idiot who's wasting his time. It's still a somewhat free country, after all.
@rpluim But it does make me wonder: if your entire take here is that the legal system is powerless and irrelevant, WHY THE FUCK ARE YOU FOLLOWING ME, someone who often writes about legal cases involving elections and the Trump administration? Is it just because you're extremely devoted to showing me the error of my ways in my choice of what I find of interest? If so, you aren't being very effective. I'm still going to follow these cases.
@mattblaze I'm not sure why you're reacting like this, nor why you are attributing to me opinions that I have not expressed. And I definitely have not tried to police what you should be interested in. Oh well.

@rpluim >> I'm not sure why you're reacting like this

Real “I’m sorry you feel that way” energy minus even the insincere “I’m sorry.”

@MisuseCase now it's my fault he's gone off the deep end? Fuck off
@mattblaze @[email protected] I blocked whoever that is way back there....