OpenAI raises $122 billion to accelerate the next phase of AI

OpenAI raises $122 billion in new funding to expand frontier AI globally, invest in next-generation compute, and meet growing demand for ChatGPT, Codex, and enterprise AI.

No, they didn't raise $122B as the HN title implies. A big chunk of that $122B is a "maybe" that depends on various things that need to happen in the future.

Oh, man... I can't wait to see where this is going. Might not be pretty after all.

Having large funding rounds contingent on meeting milestones is common. Always has been.
The assumption that's conveniently left out is that the milestones are realistic
It just makes comparing funding rounds hard to understand, since money in the bank is money in the bank, and a lot of the "committed capital if you reach a milestone" is capital that would be easy to get if you reached that milestone, if it is sufficiently advanced, and has enough outs, etc., that you may as well have just raised another round in the future.

That’s logically inconsistent. If the company was performing poorly enough that they couldn’t meet their funding milestones from a previous round, they’re not going to have an easy time raising the same money in a future round.

The milestones aren’t a hard-stop that forbids the previous funding round participants from providing the money if they still choose. It’s just an out.

sure they can. that's the whole point of the "pivot"
What I am saying is that if you do meet the milestones from your previous round, you're going to have an easy time fundraising anyway, so funding contingent on milestones isn't that different than just saying "well, if we need more money we can do another round"

Note that even that "money in the bank" of traditional venture firm is not really money in the bank. VC, PE, and hedge fund managers usually don't have all the cash for the fund sitting in the bank at all times. Rather, their agreement with the LPs that fund the fund is structured as a series of capital calls: it gives the fund the right to demand that their LPs deposit cash in their bank accounts within 10-30 days, which can then be used to fund the investments that the VC firm makes. The capital calls are backed by legal documents enforceable in court, with pretty stiff penalties for failing to meet a capital call.

Such a funding structure here isn't all that different: the funding agreement gives OpenAI the right to call on their backers to make certain cash deposits, contingent upon milestones being met. Deep down inside, "money in the bank" doesn't actually exist, it's just mutual agreements backed by force of law.

Why not announce the funding after the milestones have been met?
It's splashier this way, and is meant to shape the narrative, make other companies fear their warchest, and make hiring easier. Of course, those who are in-the-know won't be fooled, but the perception of the general public will be set in stone by the PR framing.

The funds are committed under the terms of the deal (share price, things like board seats, and other details). There are legal obligations to provide it.

This is a common structure for large investments. It would be really inefficient for all of these investors and companies to have to have the money sitting in cash to do a deal and then transfer it into the company's bank where it sits and earns interest for years until they can deploy it.

Even VC firms who raise funds work this way. The capital is "committed" but investors don't wire all of the money over right away so it can sit in the VC firm's bank accounts, waiting. The VCs do what's called a "capital call" through which they're legally bound to provide the money they committed when requested, under the terms of the deal.

One of the stipulations is that OpenAI achieves "AGI"... Need I say more?

Also a lot of this "money" is in cloud compute and credits not cash so...

that being said, how can Softbank keep throwing around all these astronomical numbers after so many bad investments? Leftover iPhone money?
Saudi oil money
Which might not be a thing anymore soon the way things are going…
cant stop winning!
Other way around - the Saudis are making bank.
Most people know Softbank as the company who lost billions on WeWork and not the company who made several more billions on the ARM IPO.
with these swings, I'm not sure how Son-san keeps himself from getting an ulcer
They borrowed $40B from JP Morgan. They literally did not have the money otherwise.
also they need to pay back that in one year, so if OpenAI don't IPO this year they are screwed

Their ~$50 million total Alibaba investment turned into ~$70 billion. As of two years ago they were still liquidating out of it.

January 26, 2024 - "Japanese investment holding firm SoftBank Group Corp has largely cleared its ownership in e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding, concluding one of the most successful deals in China's internet industry and a holding that spanned about 23 years."

"SoftBank, which invested US$20 million into Alibaba when it was still a start-up in 2000, said in a corporate filing on Thursday that it was set to book a gain of 1.26 trillion yen (US$8.5 billion) - about 425 times the value of its initial outlay - for the Tokyo-based firm's 2024 financial year after divesting its [remaining] shares via subsidiary Skybridge."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japans-softbank-concludes-run...

Japan's SoftBank concludes run as Alibaba's biggest shareholder, drawing to a close one of the most successful internet deals in China

Japanese investment holding firm SoftBank Group Corp has largely cleared its ownership in e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding, concluding one of the most ...

Yahoo Finance
Don't let reality get in the way of vibes
Seems like all of OpenAI's "deals" are announcement fodder with no real contract, primed to quietly fall through later.

I've wondered how many announced fundraising rounds were like this. It's in everyone's interest (VCs and entrepreneurs) if the message to the outside world is "this company is amazing so they've raised a boatload of cash". But VCs might not want to give it all up front, or unconditionally.

It makes it hard to say what the valuation of a company is. If the milestones are unlikely to be hit, then it's anyone's guess.