Mathieu Gotteland10h ago

Early thoughts on the #war
for Southwest (#Somalia):

- Militarily and politically, this is a resounding federal victory. Laftagareen has resigned, and Southwest state will now align on the new constitution and implement electoral reforms ahead of the 2027 election year.

- #Ethiopia has lost a key ally. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has again recently vented his grievances against Addis. The fight in Southwest against AS remains a vital Ethiopian interest.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/31/somali-army-takes-over-key-city-in-southwest-as-state-leader-resigns

#Africa

Somali army takes over key city in Southwest as state leader resigns

Somali federal government hails Baidoa’s transition, urging peace and unity amid political changes and rising tensions.

Al Jazeera
Show threadMathieu Gotteland

- A possible next step might be a larger #war for Jubaland. Nevertheless, international pressure weighs in favour of mediation, which Laftagareen had refused.

- AS controls 2/3 of Southwest state. Infighting between SNA and SNA-allied militias and its opposition will play in the organization’s hands.

- Here, like elsewhere, troubles are not however, with a big election year on the horizon.

#Somalia #Africa

1:12pmWeb