Kyle HughesMemory stocks dumping on news of Google’s new quantization algorithm while the PS5 gets a 20% price increase five years after its release—market irrationality versus reality. There will be an infinite appetite for intelligence-by-way-of-compute for the rest of our lives. All efficiency gains will be immediately eaten up. It’s the same reason why tech stocks dumping on DeepSeek R1 was ridiculous. I reckon it is more likely a PS6 never comes out than silicon allocation pressure ever improves.
Jevons Paradox is not coming for software. Software is a lossy compression format for human judgement and intelligence. It is the pipe, not the water. The Jevons effect will hit intelligence. Serialization of intelligence by way of software may experience a brief boon, but eventually software demand will contract as ambient intelligence becomes readily available. No one wants software, everyone wants intelligence and judgement.
What happens to human agency when competence becomes irresponsible? We’re going to get to find out.
Dominic Hopton@kyle imma need you to expand upon 'competence becomes irresponsible'?
@grork at some point soon it will be irresponsible for humans to make any decisions about anything
@kyle because we’ll be terrible at it?
Lucas ✦@lucaslove @grork With sufficiently capable AI—e.g. millions of geniuses in data centers, i.e. AGI—it will be irresponsible not to consult them for all decisions. In industry, all medical, logistical, financial, political, etc, decisions will need to consult them. How to use AI to get these results will also be best-handled by AI. This will have downstream effects. Why go to school? Why learn to read? The best decision will always be to let AI make the decision. The brain will be vestigial.