Here I fully buy the core tension. Picard is married to Starfleet, and is bad with kids, but shags around slightly too much for it not to be totally plausible that he just has a kid or two out there somewhere.
Obviously it doesn't end up being true in the end, but I /like/ the way it fills in who Picard is, what we know about how he exists in the world.
(Bok's plan does seem a touch convoluted.)

