Interesting and confusing new study "Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10237-9
Erich Fischer, The God Of Weather Extremes, is one of the authors.

They compare climate models regarding weather extremes:
fire weather
drought in bred basket regions
heavy precipitation / flooding in urban areas

And because each climate model_producing institute uses different weighings for its formula magic, the model outcomes differ greatly.

Averaged across all models, droughts in bred basket regions for example do not raise concerns in a 2C scenario.
But then the study looks at the extreme end of each model and finds outcomes in 10 out of 42 models "that are well beyond the multimodel mean at 4 °C of global warming."
So a 2C scenario in this particular aspect can turn out far worse than an averaged 4C nightmare.

Similar for fire weather in forests: in 4 models "an increase in FWI extremes across forests larger than the multimodel mean projection at 3 °C warming."

And urban heavy rain: "The worst-case climate outcome is particularly extreme, with precipitation extremes across populated areas at a moderate 2 °C warming projected to exceed the multimodel mean at 3 °C of global warming "

I think, the study aims to inform the modeller community rather than the public. "Get your uncertainty under control, fellows!"

The take-away for the public, for us, is that we must somehow plan for pretty bad outcomes even in a 2C-world, much worse than what the Global Mean Model projections tell us.

Like, prepare for falling off a cliff while Apple Maps tells us that the road continues for another 2km.
#climateChange #Extremeweather