lorty1d ago

So what's Iran's goals? what can they realistically win?

https://lemmygrad.ml/post/11133060

So what's Iran's goals? what can they realistically win? - Lemmygrad

They definitely can defeat US intervention and cause a lot of damage to their position in the middle east, but I keep mulling over what they can win. They can certainly force them to abandon some bases closer to them and maybe even keep a toll of some kind of the strait, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect to force the US to abandon the middle east and even Israel. At that point they’d need to actually move troops or something to do that, which isn’t realistic. Maybe just force them to give up sanctions? And make the bomb?

Show threadhappybadger [he/him]1d ago
When it isn’t their war of choice, a draw is a win. Anything beyond that is a David and Goliath win that will probably do more damage to the US than the other Middle Eastern wars have together. To me the big win is in undermining the petrodollar. The US dollar is generationally weak right now and Iran’s stipulation for the ships it allows through the Strait is that they pay the fees in yuan. As long as the Strait is controlled by them directly in this way and they can enforce global trade of a currency that currently doesn’t exchange much outside of China, they can do nothing and win. Being aligned with China helps them more than being aligned with anyone else would. Being able to reinforce and project that would be huge.
Show threadlorty1d ago
How realistic is it for them to keep a toll on the hormuz indefinitely? Wouldn’t the UN eventually force them to allow free navigation? If the war is over, they wouldn’t have a reason to keep it closed right?
Show threadbesbin
The UN and what army’s gonna remove that toll both on Hormuz? the UN is just a negotiation platform for the great powers. If China and Russia decide to keep out of this or just backing Iran under the table, the only army left would be whatever the US and their coalitions can muster, and that one is failing miserably for now. As for why can’t the toll booth won’t be gone ‘after’ the war, when will the war actually end? what if one side just go home and never announce the end of the conflict? what if a state no longer exist and a bunch of smaller states just continue fighting? what if both states cease fire indefinitely but never negotiate? Are we even at war yet when the USA haven’t officially announced that they are at war? The war only truly end only when the material difference in Iran or the West have been substantially difference and both side can negotiate some actual agreeable deals.
Mar 25 at 3:57pmWeb
Show threadlorty1d ago

Fair points, I thought of the UN mostly because of a scenario where the US “forces” their allies to actually help via UN resolutions, although I’m probably giving that path more credit than ot deserves.

If the US controls the narrative, they can declare the war over right? Considering a lot of people think Gaza is over just because it has been censored pretty effectively at this point.