Game theory predicts that this is likely to be a long conflict.

#Trump is an actor who feels like having the upper hand in any negotiation and who always tries to maximize concessions given from the adversary over the shortest arc of time, leveraging the confusion and shock that his sudden actions have over his adversaries.

#Iran is an actor that, after many rounds of negotiations and unilateral withdrawals, is ready to play the long game - well aware that any rushed deal will end up with more concessions from their side.

Trump wants to withdraw as he realized that he has just been sleepwalked by Israel into a long conflict that is going to impact prices of oil and inflation on the long term on top of the midterms, for something that was really mostly just in Israel’s interests - and in the meantime he’s trying to frame this suicidal mission as a success for him. Another “war he ended” (after starting it himself) to add to his collection.

Iran no longer trusts its interlocutor and is afraid that any retreat may hide another trick - look no further than the Hamas negotiators bombed in Qatar while they were waiting for the Israeli delegation. And, now that they have realized the power that they hold over the straight of Homuz, they may just be driven to play the long game in order to maximize the concessions from the other side.

And any further hostile act by Iran is very unlikely to be ignored both by a vindicative man like Trump and by Israeli hawks who have interest in maximizing the duration of this war.

When will the US and Israel understand that they can’t just solve all the problems in the Middle East by dropping a couple of bombs, slaughtering a political leader and then calling it a victory?

RE: https://mastodon.social/@axios/116287362557243271