I only have a rather high level understanding of current AI models, but I don’t see any way for the current generation of LLMs to actually be intelligent or conscious.

They’re entirely stateless, once-through models: any activity in the model that could be remotely considered “thought” is completely lost the moment the model outputs a token. Then it starts over fresh for the next token with nothing but the previous inputs and outputs (the context window) to work with.

That’s why it’s so stupid to ask an LLM “what were you thinking”, because even it doesn’t know! All it’s going to do is look at what it spat out last and hallucinate a reasonable-sounding answer.

There’s no reason an LLM couldn’t be hooked up to a database, where it can save outputs and then retrieve them again to “think” further about them. In fact, any LLM that can answer questions about previous prompts/responses has to be able to do this. If you prompted an LLM to review all of it’s database entries, generate a new response based on that data, then save that output to the database and repeat at regular intervals, I could see calling that a kind of thinking. If you do the same process but with the whole model and all the DB entries, that’s in the region of what I’d call a strange loop. Is that AGI? I don’t think so, but I also don’t know how I would define AGI, or if I’d recognize it if someone built it.

If you prompted an LLM to review all of it’s database entries, generate a new response based on that data, then save that output to the database and repeat at regular intervals, I could see calling that a kind of thinking.

That’s kind of what the current agentic AI products like Claude Code do. The problem is context rot. When the context window fills up, the model loses the ability to distinguish between what information is important and what’s not, and it inevitably starts to hallucinate.

The current fixes are to prune irrelevant information from the context window, use sub-agents with their own context windows, or just occasionally start over from scratch. They’ve also developed conventional AGENTS.md and CLAUDE.md files where you can store long-term context and basically “advice” for the model, which is automatically read into the context window.

However, I think an AGI inherently would need to be able to store that state internally, to have memory circuits, and “consciousness” circuits that are connected in a loop so it can work on its own internally encoded context. And ideally it would be able to modify its own weights and connections to “learn” in real time.

The problem is that would not scale to current usage because you’d need to store all that internal state, including potentially a unique copy of the model, for every user. And the companies wouldn’t want that because they’d be giving up control over the model’s outputs since they’d have no feasible way to supervise the learning process.

You seem to know more than me so can I ask you a question? I have a general sense of what the context window is / means. But why is it so small when the model is trained on huge, huge amounts of data? Why can the model encompass a whole library of training data but only a very modest context window?

The size of the context window is fixed in the structure of the model. LLMs are still at their core artificial neural networks, so an analogy to biology might be helpful.

Think of the input layer of the model like the retinas in your eyes. Each token in the context window, after embedding (i.e. conversion to a series of numbers, because ofc it’s just all math under the hood), is fed to a certain set of input neurons, just like the rods and cones in your retina capture light and convert it to electrical signals, which are passed to neurons in your optic nerve, which connect to neurons in your visual cortex, each layer along the way processing and analyzing the signal.

The number of tokens in the context window is directly proportional to the number of neurons in the input layer of the model. To make the context window bigger, you have to add more neurons to the input layer, but that quickly results in diminishing returns without adding more neurons to the inner layers to be able to process the extra information. Ultimately, you have to make the whole model larger, which means more parameters, which means more data to store and more processing power per prompt.