Charlie StrossMar 22

Meanwhile, a thought about the Macbook Neo:

The Neo uses an A18 Pro SOC, the 2024 iPhone Pro cpu—the iPhone 17 Pro runs on the A19 Pro. (The Neo soaks up their stockpile of high-end phone rejects.)

Apple's about to ramp up for the 2026 iPhones, which will release in September on the A20Pro.

Phones outsell laptops by a huge margin so I think the current Neo will be quietly replaced by an A19 Pro model in September, to use up the reject stockpile once as iPhone 17 sales tapers off.

/1

Show threadCharlie StrossMar 22

Implication: if you want a Macbook Neo this year, maybe wait until September—unless you expect the coming supply chain shock to hit Apple, too. Which is not impossible if TSMC can't meet their chip delivery dates.

If that happens, prices will shoot up and scarcity economics will take over, so buy now and be prepared to run it for the next decade.

/2

Show threadCharlie StrossMar 22

I don't need a Macbook Neo. My current "cheap mobile writing machine" niche is filled by a M3 Macbook Air. But my newest iPad and iPhone are two generation old Pro models.

I suspect … no new iPad for me in 2026/27, but *maybe* a spec-bumped Neo in Sept/Oct, which will cover a lot of the iPad use cases (and is cheaper).

Then aim to run it forever.

(I'm overdue for a complete re-think of what I do with my herd of computers, and therefore what I actually need.)

/3 (end)

Show threadRay Greenwell
@cstross I would expect neo 2 in 12-18 months, not 6.
Mar 23 at 12:55amWeb
Show threadCharlie StrossMar 23

@wtfwtf_ok No. The key factor is the availability of those reject iPhone 17 Pro systems-on-chips. If the 18 Pro moves to a new chipset, (a) the Neo's CPU/RAM/Storage is obsolete and starts tapering off, and (b) why not try and upsell some waverers?

Apple did this before with the first unibody Macbook Pro/Macbook circa 2007/08. New model after 9 months! (They deleted Firewire and replaced the port with another USB-C, and deleted the user-replacable battery, strengthening hte case. I had one.)

Show threadRay GreenwellMar 23

@cstross the ‘reject’ binned chips are there all along. They don’t need to stop making the 17pro to free-up chips that were never going into in the first place.

I do understand that apple sometimes does a fast follow-up on products (m3 macbook pros launched the same year as the m2, and further back the iPad 4 came out like 6 months after iPad 3) but I don’t think that’s the plan with the Neo, I think this model will be with us through Christmas. I have no inside knowledge though.

Show threadCharlie StrossMar 23
@wtfwtf_ok Yes, but A19Pro (chipset) production will drop drastically once the iPhone 18 with the A20Pro generation comes out, then disappear a couple of years later. As this is the fastest-selling Mac launch ever, they'll run through the stockpile. (I agree it will be available until Christmas: but most likely some time after iPhone 18 is announced they'll announce a spec-bumped Neo and phase out the cheapest model.)
Show threadRay GreenwellMar 23
@cstross we have no idea if they’re still making A18 pro chips. They could be rolling off the line still today. Apple can take ones with all-working cores and disable one and put it in the Neo. They may also be using the chips for iPads or Apple TVs or who knows what else.