Charlie StrossMar 22

Meanwhile, a thought about the Macbook Neo:

The Neo uses an A18 Pro SOC, the 2024 iPhone Pro cpu—the iPhone 17 Pro runs on the A19 Pro. (The Neo soaks up their stockpile of high-end phone rejects.)

Apple's about to ramp up for the 2026 iPhones, which will release in September on the A20Pro.

Phones outsell laptops by a huge margin so I think the current Neo will be quietly replaced by an A19 Pro model in September, to use up the reject stockpile once as iPhone 17 sales tapers off.

/1

Show threadCharlie StrossMar 22

Implication: if you want a Macbook Neo this year, maybe wait until September—unless you expect the coming supply chain shock to hit Apple, too. Which is not impossible if TSMC can't meet their chip delivery dates.

If that happens, prices will shoot up and scarcity economics will take over, so buy now and be prepared to run it for the next decade.

/2

Show threadCharlie Stross

I don't need a Macbook Neo. My current "cheap mobile writing machine" niche is filled by a M3 Macbook Air. But my newest iPad and iPhone are two generation old Pro models.

I suspect … no new iPad for me in 2026/27, but *maybe* a spec-bumped Neo in Sept/Oct, which will cover a lot of the iPad use cases (and is cheaper).

Then aim to run it forever.

(I'm overdue for a complete re-think of what I do with my herd of computers, and therefore what I actually need.)

/3 (end)

Mar 22 at 12:47pmWeb
Show threadCurioso 🍉 🇺🇦 (jgg)Mar 22

@cstross

There is an entire world beyond the limits of the Apple ecosystem.

I don't know what your needs are, but maybe it is time to test the free software waters. If you start replacing your current applications with open source ones, the change to Linux can be pretty seamless.

And the sense of freedom is priceless.

But to each his own.

Show threadTubemeisterMar 22
@jgg @cstross Preeeettty sure Charlie’s aware of linux… 😉
Show threadCharlie StrossMar 22
@Tubemeister @jgg Yes. Linux doesn't run the keystone software my business depends on. Period. (If it did I'd switch in a split second, as long as I could find a systemd-free and wayland-free distro to run it on.)
Show threadCurioso 🍉 🇺🇦 (jgg)Mar 22

@cstross @Tubemeister

I saw that coming. A real pity.

I'm a bit surprised a writer has such a hard dependency with MacOS, but things happen and we can't always choose. Tell George R.R. Martin.

About the distro, I'm fully on the systemd and wayland wagon from some years ago, and I happen to love both.

Wayland solved the annoying tearing issues I had with XWindows, and systemd made my boot times an order of magnitude faster. Last time I had a compatibility issue was about two years ago.

I understand that some tinkery oriented people with a vocation of sysadmins can have issues with them, but as a mere user, there is no chance I am even testing any distro without both in the near future.

The good thing about having choices is we can choose.

Show threadTubemeisterMar 22

@jgg @cstross It's probably possible to use a different tool if the absolute need arises, but converting a primary process like that tends to not be cheap, if only in mental energy. (Though probably in reduced output too which readily translates to actual money.)

As for systemd, I don't mind the core system, the unit files work pretty well from the user end. It's all the extra shit like resolved I can do without, and it's run by a plonker with what seems like an "it works on my laptop" approach

Show threadCharlie StrossMar 22
@Tubemeister @jgg Linux *as a whole* seems to be losing the plot wrt. the UNIX philosophy (which I am 100% there for). If forced, I'd probably switch to one of the BSDs.
Show threadTubemeisterMar 22

@cstross @jgg There is plenty to moan about in Linux land, certainly if you run Ubuntu. Which I do, here too the changeover cost is high and it hasn't sucked quite bad enough yet. Mostly.

Yeah systemd is shitting on "the UNIX philosophy", but the core system does work and offers some quite nice upsides over /etc/init.d scripts from a sysadmin pov.

Flip side is that it's a lot less simple and transparent so if something does go to shit it's more work to figure out WTF this time. Mixed blessing.

Show threadCurioso 🍉 🇺🇦 (jgg)Mar 22

@Tubemeister @cstross

(Oh, I know. Only nudging a bit. No sense baiting someone who doesn't have a clue.)

Show threadTubemeisterMar 22

@cstross Mmmh. Don’t want a Neo, but I may have to ponder a new Air after all.

The 2020 M1 doesn’t actually feel slow yet, which makes an impressive change from intel era macs, but it is getting on a bit and the thought of running it for another 5-10 years is a bit um.

Show threadWoozle HypertwinMar 23

@Tubemeister @cstross

I'm personally on team "cheap used laptop from ebay but with Linux", for whatever that's worth.

Show threadTubemeisterMar 23

@woozle Yeah, BTDT.

I flipped back and forth between Mac and Linux every couple of years, getting annoyed with either the fragile never-quite-right project nature of Linux or the slick but rigid somebody-had-a-meeting-and-decided-you-can't-do-that nature of the Mac.

I now have both: A personal Mac and Linux on the work Thinkpad. :-)

Show threadFazal MajidMar 22
@cstross the big problem with a Neo or new iPad is they will be preinstalled with Liquid Ass with no way to upgrade back to macOS Sequoia or iOS 18.
Show threadsbszineMar 22
@fazalmajid @cstross My experience has been that all of the Liquid stuff is completely optional on phones and conputers. It sucks but you don't have to use it unless you're a keen masochist. On AppleTV you're stuck with it but it's fairly unobtrusive.
Show threadRay GreenwellMar 23
@cstross I would expect neo 2 in 12-18 months, not 6.
Show threadCharlie StrossMar 23

@wtfwtf_ok No. The key factor is the availability of those reject iPhone 17 Pro systems-on-chips. If the 18 Pro moves to a new chipset, (a) the Neo's CPU/RAM/Storage is obsolete and starts tapering off, and (b) why not try and upsell some waverers?

Apple did this before with the first unibody Macbook Pro/Macbook circa 2007/08. New model after 9 months! (They deleted Firewire and replaced the port with another USB-C, and deleted the user-replacable battery, strengthening hte case. I had one.)

Show threadRay GreenwellMar 23

@cstross the ‘reject’ binned chips are there all along. They don’t need to stop making the 17pro to free-up chips that were never going into in the first place.

I do understand that apple sometimes does a fast follow-up on products (m3 macbook pros launched the same year as the m2, and further back the iPad 4 came out like 6 months after iPad 3) but I don’t think that’s the plan with the Neo, I think this model will be with us through Christmas. I have no inside knowledge though.

Show threadCharlie StrossMar 23
@wtfwtf_ok Yes, but A19Pro (chipset) production will drop drastically once the iPhone 18 with the A20Pro generation comes out, then disappear a couple of years later. As this is the fastest-selling Mac launch ever, they'll run through the stockpile. (I agree it will be available until Christmas: but most likely some time after iPhone 18 is announced they'll announce a spec-bumped Neo and phase out the cheapest model.)
Show threadRay GreenwellMar 23
@cstross we have no idea if they’re still making A18 pro chips. They could be rolling off the line still today. Apple can take ones with all-working cores and disable one and put it in the Neo. They may also be using the chips for iPads or Apple TVs or who knows what else.