Scientific American: COVID probably killed 150,000 more people in its first two years than official U.S. tolls show

We have severely undercounted the number of COVID deaths, scientists say (March 18, 2026)

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-killed-150-000-more-people-in-its-first-two-years-than-official-toll/

#covid19 #covid #pandemic

COVID probably killed 150,000 more people in its first two years than official U.S. tolls show

We have severely undercounted the number of COVID deaths, scientists say

Scientific American

@ai6yr
scientists?
SCIENTISTS?

we've been saying that all along.

The pandemic’s true death toll

Our daily estimate of excess deaths around the world

The Economist
@ai6yr
This study seems to use a different approach to calculating covid deaths. I've seen other studies that used actuarial techniques to calculate excess deaths.
@Dougfir @ai6yr Most the actuarial studies I’ve seen estimated things higher still than this. Excess deaths have been astonishing.
@ai6yr can confirm. I have a spreadsheet somewhere showing all deaths at my hospital after a patient was admitted, broken down by cause. I did the audits and was very conservative in my assignment of cause when it came to, say, COVID vs COVID+ with bacterial sepsis on admission, or COVID+ with massive hemorrhagic stroke. In 2021, 45% of our inpatient deaths were clearly from COVID. Many of the remaining were probably also, but I wasn’t looking at COVID at the time.
@mcnado Brutal killer, for sure.

@ai6yr @mcnado

Certain jobs need to be reclassified as "high risk, high exposure"

Teachers, for example, are on strike in Mexico for higher pay, & rightfully so. Teaching has a high exposure risk profile for contagious disease & isn't yet compensated accordingly.

Doubly so for health care workers. The pay should be commensurate with the level of hazard.

People jobs are seeing recruiting problems. Child care. Nursing. Fast food.

Is any job is worth a 5th case of covid?

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Six years after covid was declared a global pandemic, classrooms, hospitals etc remain as vectors for respiratory disease outbreaks.

Until actuaries & insurance underwriters get involved, these workplaces won't get air purification systems installed or other mitigation practices for workplace safety.

As evidence grows, workers compensation programs may get hit with sizable increases in premiums.

Liability insurance for forcing workers to be in offices during a pandemic will be reshaped.

@ai6yr Now imagine it would have hit now.
@ai6yr Not surprised - the eye for detail on dead registration reflects the general trend on details in the USA..

@ai6yr

I knew too many people that said they didn't die from Covid if they had "underlying conditions"...

I usually snapped back that if someone was brought into emergency from a vehicle crash, that then died on the table - but had cancer... did cancer kill them, or did the car crash.

They just refused to accept - that Covid infection moved up their eventual death from those possible underlying conditions.

They might have had years to live... were it not for Covid.

🤬

@ai6yr

Because the deniers decided to stop tracking Covid deaths specifically - and even forcing the certificates to show "underlying causes"...

... THEN the only way to know --- is to graph out all deaths over decades... and see the blip in deaths after January 2020...

That blip -- e.g. the change in the totals/average over those decades -- is Covid deaths.

--
I posted this in late March 2020 - when China, FL, TX - refused to publish accurate deaths.

@ai6yr @Jeanniewarner Mistitled article! COVID probably killed 150,000 more USAn people than official figures show. Extrapolates globally (if everyone else was lowballing their figures to the same degree) to 3 million extra deaths.

Hint: non-American dead count too!

@cstross @Jeanniewarner Oh yeah, for sure. should be "150,000 more people in the US"
@ai6yr @Jeanniewarner It's Scientific American: it's baked into the title. It's still intensely irritating, though.
@cstross @ai6yr I feel ya. Deeply. Sigh.