supersquirrel

US weighs sending thousands of troops to region as Iran war rages: Report

https://sopuli.xyz/post/42838097

US weighs sending thousands of troops to region as Iran war rages: Report - Sopuli

The centrists of the world are still stuck in “But he won’t do that!” and he will. It is unlikely this war will not escalate to a ground war in Iran, there are no offramps and there is little reason to believe any will appear. This is going to end with a ground invasion, a use of nuclear weapons by the US/Israel or both. This is not hyperbole, people need to wake up.

Mar 19 at 3:24pmWeb
Show threadBaroqueInMindMar 19
Send everyone who voted Republican first. What the fuck is this bullshit?
Show threadmrdownMar 19
Show threadsupersquirrelMar 19

The problem is that Iran is going to get fucked up bad, I disagree with everything the US and Israel is doing in this war, including having started it on false pretenses, but Iran also seems very overconfident that they aren’t about to get fucked up bad, and that is a dangerous, VERY DANGEROUS misconception.

You can understand the US as a dumb, fascist military empire in rapid decline and still appreciate that you absolutely do not for any reason want to fuck with the US starting a ground operation against you. You will lose.

Which isn’t to say the US can invade and occupy Iran broadly, what I mean is a ground operation done to accomplish some bullshit military goal where US troops are actually on the ground in Iran but the objective isn’t to hold territory necessarily. US troops come in hot on helicopters, jump out kill a bunch of kids and innocent people, take some “objective”, destroy it and then fly out on helicopters. Iran will get their ass kicked in this kind of war because the US is the best in the world at it by far, and it really isn’t even close.

Does that mean these operations will be militarily and politically successful? No, but the idea that the US is too incompetent and unaware to militarily carry out these operations is again a dangerous misconception.

The global community is not considering this possibility, it is either full on Iraq War invasion or just an aerial bombing campaign and neither is anywhere near as likely as somewhere in between and in that between space is a genuine threat from the US military that Iran would be foolish to write off as it appears many Iranians are doing even as the US openly lays the groundwork for a devastating aerial assault.

Fascists on both sides are saying “Ha, well let them try!” and the thing is, you really REALLY don’t want to let the US military try, even if they fail it is going to end up in a lot of tragedy. The US military is not Trump, it fights to win, not because it is cowardly and projecting weakness as a distraction like Trump does. Don’t conflate the two.

Show threadmrdownMar 19

Iran is going to get fucked up bad

We know that even if iran surrender the attacks will not end and iran is going to get slowly genocided.

Iran know very well the risks but know very well that a ground invasion is what would hurt the usa the most and that they havr no choice to fight

Show threadsupersquirrelMar 19

Definitely, the impetus for these attacks was basically that Iran did not have nuclear weapons and the US and Israel didn’t care, and wanted to send the message that Iran has no choice but to arm themselves with nuclear weapons so that they could better play the role of villain to Israel. So yes… the message is clear, the US and Israel will slaughter Iranians whether or not they defend themselves, so the obvious choice (as the message sent by the US and Israel unprovoked attacks was meant to push Iran into choosing) is for Iran to arm themselves with nuclear weapons now.

Iran can and will successfully resist the US if it comes to a ground operation at a strategic level even if Iran loses repeatedly on a tactical level, what I am saying is that in the end it is going to be bad for everybody, nobody should be approaching this with “Well let them try it, they will get fucked up!”. They will… but so will Iran, badly.

Show threadmrdownMar 19
Everybody would have wanted to the war to never start but it is too late whatever we like it or not , the war is going to get more bloody
Show threadsupersquirrelMar 19

Yes which is why posting a meme with “Let them come” vibes really doesn’t send the right message even though I have solidarity with the Iranian people.

No, no do not let them come, loudly denounce it the entire time for being the evil it is. This will end badly, horrifically for Iran. Iran has no idea how terrifying fighting a full on war with the US is, it will be so much worse than just air strikes.

Also if the ground operation fails catastrophically Israel/The US could easily turn to nuclear weapons to take out a “necessary” target.

Show threadmrdownMar 19
What Araghchi means is that Iran is ready to fight the American terrorists if they come. Of course he would rather not see any American on the ground
Show threadHanrahanMar 19

You will lose.

like Afghanistan you mean ?

Show threadsupersquirrelMar 19

Again, that was a security operation, not an aerial assault.

The objective here is to just smash things and leave, the US can absolutely do that fine here. Unfortunately for hopeful doubters and Iran, this is the reality.

Show threadmrdownMar 19
security operation lol. Every aggressor use that excuse No, it was another war of aggression by the USA
Show threadsupersquirrelMar 19

I am not applying a political judgement here, I am describing what it physically was. Afghanistan was a security operation, this would be an aerial/land assault.

We stayed in Afghanistan because there was more expectation that you just don’t walk in, blow everything up and then leave without dealing with the consequences. Now even that farce of a facade has eroded, which of course is not a good thing but it also means that people are misunderstanding what a ground operation would be intended to do here.

This wouldn’t be a smash and occupy, it would be a hit and run. It will accomplish nothing politically but empower hardliners in Iran and for that the operation will likely serve the interests of rightwing religious extremists on both sides.

Show threadmrdownMar 19

You are applying a political judgment. It was physically a war of aggression and the consequences was not a mistake it was as planned.

This wouldn’t be a smash and occupy, it would be a hit and run. It will accomplish nothing politically but empower hardliners in Iran and for that the operation will likely serve the interests of rightwing religious extremists on both sides.

You think it make a difference for Iranians if they was murdered by an on ground force vs airstrikes . Anything but stopping the war is going to empower hardliners . Like I already say I do not want it to happen but it will because American are idiots .

Show threadbestboyfriendintheworldMar 19

The logistical challenges for a major ground war in Iran are immense. Months of staging are necessary to pull this off.

At the moment the US Navy isn’t even close to Iranian shores.

The war is already unpopular in the US, also among Trump supporters. Elections are upcoming and they don’t look good for republicans.

Oil prices are high now, but could climb immensely. This isn’t only unpopular, but has huge economic consequences.

Support from allies is weak to lukewarm.

Invasion and occupation of a few islands might happen.

I’m not saying it won’t happen, but I wouldn’t say it’s highly likely on a large scale.

Trump can just make up an off-ramp at any time he likes to. Make a flimsy deal with Iran, declare victory, and go home. Maybe choosing a scapegoat to fire is also in the cards. This is how he operates.

How a ground war would go, is uncertain. It very much depends on the Iranian army and if it’s ready to confront the revolutionary guard.

Show threadsupersquirrelMar 19

Trump can just make up an off-ramp at any time he likes to. Make a flimsy deal with Iran, declare victory, and go home. Maybe choosing a scapegoat to fire is also in the cards. This is how he operates.

This kind of thinking is what really worries me, it completely misses that the most cowardly thing for Trump to do here is flatten Iran and leave.

TACO here means bomb this shit out of Iran, do several targeted assaults and utterly dismantle the infrastructure of Iran so it becomes a failed state (not politically but in actual functioning of basic utilities) declare victory and then leave.

I do not think an extended, large ground war is going to happen, I specifically pointed out that what I think is likely is an aerial assault to destroy some aspects necessary for basic civil life in Iran.

At the moment the US Navy isn’t even close to Iranian shores.

The Tripoli is headed straight for the area, 2000 troops aren’t enough to invade and occupy but if you think they can’t penetrate in an aerial assault into Iran and fuck shit up pretty much wherever they want to, again you are misunderstanding the ways in which the jingoism of the US is separate from the reality of military dominance the US has here.

Iran having an entire country full of fighters who will resist means the US cannot occupy Iran in any meaningful sense and succeed, but again and I don’t know why I have to keep saying this, the objective of Trump and cronies is to go in, smash things apart, and leave. This is a vandalization crime, not a military occupation and under this political calculus the cowardly thing for Trump to do is completely kneecap Iran for no reason other than to create disorder, chaos and mass civilian suffering and then run away.

The entire point of a high tempo, focused aerial assault is that it makes for a brief window of time an entire overwhelming and spatially distributed country of resistance fighters and organized military irrelevant if they aren’t PRECISELY where is being assaulted by air. By the time forces within <25km react and get to the area, whatever the US intended to be done will have already been done.

So yeah, I think people who are laughing at what the US military can do here are engaging in a dangerous delusion even as I completely and utterly disagree with what the US and Israel have done in starting this pointless war and I think it amounts to a warcrime.

Show threadbestboyfriendintheworldMar 22
Yes, aerial and naval assaults and raids are certainly possible.
Show threadsupersquirrelMar 22

I think it is telling enough that western media is conspiciously only talking about assaulting kharg island the most obvious target imaginable, a full on ground invasion or Trump magically having a change in heart and backing down. It tells you all you need to know, that what will happen is none of these three options and very obviously the one missing potential that is not being discussed are aerial assaults on localized parts of Iran to further destabilize the country.

See Libya and the “No Fly Zone” Escalation Doctrine.

Show threadbestboyfriendintheworldMar 25

General media is notoriously ignorant of the practical details of all things military. Applies to pretty much any topic though. Journalists only have a surface level understanding at best.

If you look at the defense and military publications, it’s different. See this article on the use of Kurdish local forces in Iran.

A good collection of better quality info than the mainstream media can be found at old.reddit.com/r/credibledefense

Proxy Pressure on Iran: The Promise and Pitfalls of Arming the Kurds

Early in the ongoing war against Iran, the Trump administration and its ally, Israel, believed they could foment a popular uprising to topple the Iranian

War on the Rocks
Show threadsupersquirrelMar 25

I disagree credible defense has some laughable opinions and generally is very willingly blind to blatant geopolitics that simply cannot be ignored in a way that undermines the military discussion.

Some of the credible defense people came over to the fediverse, or someone here attempted to make a mirror community idk and again my same critique applies.

For example if you try to analyze how effective US attacks will be on Iran without recognizing the broader political absurdity and context as Credible Defense type people do everything about your analysis is meaningless no matter how much you know about electronics warfare, bunker busters and F35s.

Similarly the Credible Defense people gladly discuss the Gaza Genocide like it is a war, which if you understand war and are not gullible as hell is another absurdism. A military expert should know tanks and jets are not needed to subdue open air prisons and that using them for such could only mean one thing, Genocide.

This alone should make everyone on that community deeply ashamed of themselves, a cursory search to check again shows no mention of Gaza as a Genocide, only the occasional discussion about it from the framing of a war. These are ENGLISH speaking people talking about war literally ignoring where the VAST MAJORITY of US bombs have been dropped in the last couple of years.

I spit into the dirt

No I do not recommend going there, those people like military stuff because it looks cool and makes them feel powerful, they are children pretending to be adults discussing serious things. They are children pretending you can discuss war apolitcally in an pseudo academic fashion without including the context of the people living where the battlefield is and how they interface with the violence.

Also as a side note the people on Credible Defense are just wrong a lot too? They have been incorrectly forecasting russia’s strength as far stronger than it really is for the past six months and the signs have been obvious to anyone who pays attention to military stuff that russia was crumbling. In other words what people know so far as they do at Credible Defense I don’t think it will actually lead them to disagree with any broader status quo narrative already established about war so shrugs what is the point in reading their opinions?