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Mesoscale Discussion 0263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...Far southern WV...western VA...far eastern
TN...western NC and SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 160821Z - 161015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds will continue with an
eastward-advancing squall line. A downstream watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented QLCS is tracking eastward across
eastern KY, TN, and northern GA at around 40 kt. While
boundary-layer moisture and surface-based buoyancy is limited ahead
of the line (especially with northward extent), very strong
deep-layer flow/shear oriented parallel to the leading gust front
should continue to support the maintenance of the QLCS with eastward
extent. Given the linear mode, damaging wind gusts will continue to
be the primary concern, though an embedded mesovortex tornado cannot
be entirely ruled out -- given strong low-level shear. A downstream
watch will likely be issued soon.

..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026