Institutionally, today’s GOP is weak. A large chunk of its base is not devoted to the party, but personally loyal to Donald Trump. There is no party apparatus that could realistically police the fringes or steer the selection process of candidates; GOP primaries generate ever more radical people.

At the same time, as a vehicle of MAGA power, the Republican Party has been indispensable. The MAGA base makes up about 15 to 20 percent of U.S. adults – those whose political identity is tied up in the movement. That would not have been enough to catapult Trump to power had he run as an independent candidate.

However, because Trump took over the GOP from within, he has not been limited to the support of the hard-right base. He has been able to count on the votes of the vast majority of people who identify as “Republican.” Political identities are sticky - and Trump benefits from negative polarization.

As a political brand the “Grand Old Party” lends legitimacy to Trump and MAGA, which helps explain why so many people who would never themselves identify as radical have nevertheless given themselves permission to make common cause with the extremists in charge of the GOP.

Considering how much the Republican Party has been shaped by a cult of personality around Trump, how much it has functioned as an extreme version of personalist rule, there will inevitably be a power vacuum if and when Trump exits the stage.

An opening for voices of moderation? Don’t hold your breath. They have long been banished from the party. The most likely scenario is that JD Vance and anyone who desires to lead the GOP will aggressively placate the extreme fringes in their bid to succeed Trump.