Ruth Mottram

Really good piece from @hausfath on #TheClimateBrink about #ElNino - we have been thinking a lot about this in the @esaclimate #PISCO project - there are important ENSO related effects on #Antarctic ice sheet.

Interestingly I think all the models here are classic numerical models, a Chinese deep learning model also shows a strong El Nino (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-59173-8).
2025 seems to offer a good test bed for the different forecasts.

#AI #DeepLearning

https://open.substack.com/pub/theclimatebrink/p/the-el-nino-cometh

Combined dynamical-deep learning ENSO forecasts - Nature Communications

This study proposes two schemes for integrating DL and dynamical models for ENSO prediction, which outperform individual models and improve the prediction skill across a range of lead times.

Nature
Mar 13 at 9:48amWeb
Show threadRuth Mottram4d ago
Some good intercomparisons, also including statistical models also here:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | February 2026 Quick Look