An Israeli military base in #Somaliland would entangle in in proxy wars
That such a base had not been discussed or demanded as a condition for #Israel s recognition of Somaliland may be true, in which case the breakaway country has demonstrated diplomatic statecraft and strategic clairvoyance.
Even an Ethiopian naval base, envisioned by the 2024 MoU, was risking civil #war and triggered hostility from not only #Somalia, but #Djibouti and other Red Sea coastal states.
#Israel is currently and since October 2023 engaged in a high intensity and ever escalating proxy war with #Iran, including the #Houthis in nearby #Yemen. The current #US Irael strikes in Iran seem to have triggered an unrestrained response from them and their proxies in #Lebanon and #Iraq.
The #Houthis are considered likely to join soon. If that happened, reported plans for an Israeli military base would be designating them a target of high symbolic value.
(And that is without mentioning predictable hostility from Gulf countries and Red Sea coastal states, handing #Somalia a golden argument against #Somaliland s independence)
Mathieu Gotteland