Dare Obasanjo

Kalshi has refused to payout bets that that Khamenei will be “out as Supreme Leader” because they’ve said it violates their rules around profiting from death.

Users are pissed but I’m glad they’re enforcing this rule given it literally incentivizes murder otherwise.

https://nypost.com/2026/03/05/business/kalshi-refuses-to-pay-winnings-on-54m-trade-related-to-khameneis-death-drawing-user-fury/

Kalshi refuses to pay winnings on $54M trade related to Khamenei's death, drawing user fury

Prediction market Kalshi has outraged users by refusing to pay out winnings on a $54 million trade related to the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

New York Post
Mar 7 at 7:41pmWeb
Show threadGeorge HotellingMar 7
@carnage4life as soon as I heard about crypto prediction markets my mind immediately went to this guy from the 90's: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Bell#%22Assassination_Politics%22_essay
Jim Bell - Wikipedia

Show threadDan Portales 🇲🇽 Mar 7
@carnage4life Which phase of Necrocapitalism are we in, again?
Show threadnoiseician 🏴🖤🍉Mar 7
@carnage4life this scenario was literally a Black Mirror episode...
Show threadRiley S. FaelanMar 7
@carnage4life Back in the Olden Times, when BitCoin didn't exist yet, DigiCash's bankrupcty was recent, and a lot of 'libertarian cypherpunk' folks were more into social theory than the maths of cryptography, one of the recurring ideas was that the simplest way to trade murder-for-hire services, with plausible deniability would be through a prediction market. (These existed, but I only know of offline betting parlours from these times.) You can probably find countless discussions about them on the remaining archives of the Old Usenet, cypherpunk e-zines, and maybe some early web forums.
Show threadDare ObasanjoMar 7
@riley We’ve found ways to monetize every terrible idea in tech.
Show threadRiley S. FaelanMar 8
@carnage4life That's what the vulture capitalists were invented for.