That’s an extremely specific scenario and I would bet money on it not happening quite as you describe.

What if people become more AI literate and generally understand it’s uses and misuses better? What if the dating and social connection landscape changes and some other platform makes things way easier or changes the way we connect? What if people become so lonely they revert back to prostitution?

There’s a million more scenarios and no one really knows what the future looks like, so I think it’s very likely that your scenario does not come true at all.

I don’t see any reason to assume that, given enough time, our VR and AI systems wouldn’t get advanced enough that a VR world becomes indistinguishable from reality - and the AI avatars in it impossible to tell from real humans. Hell, they could even be consciouss. While I don’t think we’re there yet, it’s still conceivable that you could be living in exactly that kind of simulation right now and have no idea. We’re already completely fooled by imaginary worlds every single night when we fall asleep.

AI girlfriend are basically interactive romantic boks/movie great, you’re the one replying instead of just watching. But a real relationship has more to offer. Stuff like knowing someone’s wait for you at home. Someone you want to cook for, arms in which you can cry. I can’t see AI bringing all of that, and I am not sure you should upload unspeakable sexual fetish to the cloud, so everyone knows it.

One thing I like about having human friends is the shared human experience. No AI could replace that.

How effectively

Depends a lot on your definitions.

For example, you could take monetary success of these services. I am sure there will be very much success = effective?

Another possible definition is: how good is the simulation? Can it still be distinguished from a real human partner? There it ill not be very good at all, during the next decade or so.

I mean, Animal Crossing did this without either VR or AI. And Nintendo’s been making them since, what, the GameCube? Even if you look at the current version, while it was just updated this year with the hotel, it originally came out in 2020, before the AI boom. You get on your Switch, boot into the game, and everyone talks to you, but they’re aware of how long it’s been since you last logged in. So for me, snow was still on the ground when I played last, and I know snow starts melting on or around February 22, because that’s how it’s been since 2020. So I know my villagers are going to give me some shit for being away for a few weeks. (I blame Mass Effect 4.)

I find Animal Crossing more satisfying than Facebook, which I do not use, but it seems to be the same kind of thing but with real people. It’s also a wild zoo of different kinds of animals and… yeah I’m gonna stop there.

So I think as AI advances and people are more and more okay with online or digital interaction, I think it’s entirely possible to have a VR/AI partner. I’m actually surprised there aren’t fully fleshed out products like that now. Like an Alexa that treats you like a partner and talks to you every day (and talks dirty to you in the evening). There are probably services online that can do it — didn’t Grok have a “spicy mode” that could do this? — but I wouldn’t expect it to be cheap.

You’ve got two very different questions here.

Will AI be able to replace sexual partners? You don’t need AI for that. We’ve had sex toys for millennia. You don’t need a partner for sexual gratification. You need a partner for all the other things that come with being in a relationship.

Will you be able to have a friendship with an AI? No. Talking to an AI is essentially talking to yourself. If you can’t replace a relationship with an imaginary friend, AI won’t do it either.

That being said, it is possible that some people’s interactions in a relationship are so shallow that they could replace people with AI. Frankly it might be best is they did so to spare others from investing in relationships that are clearly one-sided.

A lot less effectively but at such a low fraction of the cost of actually human relationships that a lot of people will get sucked in anyway.