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#economics #oil #overnight #futures

@moira Um... Fuck... Let me go back and look at that to confirm it's not being deceptive... Oh it is. But still an overnight increase of 15% is fucky enough... For something as long established as that certainly.

@JigmeDatse Deceptive?

Oh, you mean zero-based Y-axis graph. I understand that argument but it doesn't apply everywhere all the time. Oil has what amounts to a profitability floor around $60/barrel, under which you start seeing large-scale production cuts. (This is something you'd know if you watch the market much, but wouldn't otherwise. See also XKCD 2501.) So printing all the way down to zero obscures data by squashing detail rather than enhansing it by providing context which, in this case, it honestly wouldn't.

(Yes, in earlier inflation eras the profitability floor was lower. That's a "technically true but irrelevant to the current economic window" fact, however.)

@moira Deceptive, not so much as it may have sounded. I'm aware that if that was plotted with a zero-y axis it would just look like a blip. But as it is plotted it looks like a doubling of the price, instead of a 15% increase of the price.

Deceptive as, "It doesn't mean what it looks like it means at first glance". It's a massive change of price, but not the apparent doubling.

@JigmeDatse It's a doubling of the price _within the profitability range_, which - again, if you understand the market - is the relevant measure of geopolitical risk as priced in oil, the relevant commodity in this illegal war.

_If you know the market_, what you see on first glance _is_ correct.

@moira Fair. I rarely understand these sorts of things about economics. I don't understand why "our" (parents) financial advisor thinks that crypto is viable.

@JigmeDatse Personally, I'd say crypto _is_ viable, but _only_ if you're willing to put money into large-scale - state-level - money laundering, sanctions-avoidance, and fraud/theft.

North Korea, for example, is massively involved in crypto both for all these purposes - but so are many others, both national and private.

Throw out all the official/theoretical bullshit reasons for crypto. Those are why it has value.

@moira Yeah, I think it's a viable in the sense that people think it's viable (particularly money laundering, sanctions avoiding, fraud theft), especially when there's reasonable ways to buy/sell that can be converted to more widely accepted financial instruments.

Perhaps, I wasn't listening well enough, as I was in a different room.
@JigmeDatse Really, I'm more being very rude about their financial advisor. "Sure, it's viable, if you're into profiting off the worst people in the world." It's like the old triangle trade, including there's literal slavery, so.